20160613-新鸿基金融集团-INVESTMENT_DAILY_NOTE_15页_2mb

报告摘要

Investment Daily Note Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive overview of the Hong Kong and global markets, including index performance, stock trends, economic data, and key sector movements. It also highlights specific stock recommendations and valuations for major indices.

Main Market Indices

Hang Seng Index (HSI)

Close: 21,043
Daily Change: -1.2%
Year-to-Date (YTD) Change: -4.0%

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI)

Close: 8,832
Daily Change: -2.2%
YTD Change: -8.6%

Shanghai Composite

Close: 2,927
Daily Change: -0.3%
YTD Change: -17.3%

Nasdaq Composite

Close: 4,895
Daily Change: -1.3%
YTD Change: -2.3%

Market Trends and Performance

HSI and HSCEI both experienced declines in the previous trading day, influenced by weak external markets.
The Hong Kong Market Turnover was HK$54.5 billion, with the HSI down 11.95% and the Main Board down 3.30%.
TCL Communication (2618.HK) announced a privatization proposal with a cash offer of HK$7.50 per share, representing a 34.65% premium over the last closing price, which is expected to positively influence its stock price.

Sector Performance

Best Performing Sectors

REITs: 0.6% (5D: 3.1%, 1M: 4.9%)
HK Telecoms: 0.6% (5D: 0.5%, 1M: -0.8%)
Local Property: -0.5% (5D: 2.2%, 1M: 7.3%)
HK Consumer Group: -0.5% (5D: -0.1%, 1M: 9.7%)
Dairy: -0.6% (5D: 0.4%, 1M: 1.7%)

Major Stocks in Best Performing Sectors

REITs: Yuexiu REIT (405), Fortune REIT (778), Prosperity REIT (808), LINK Reit (823), Champion REIT (2778)
HK Telecoms: HutchTel HK (215), Smartone (315), HKT-SS (6823)
Local Property: CK Hutchison (1), Henderson Land (12), SHK Prop (16), New World Dev (17), Sino Land (83)
HK Consumer Group: Sa Sa Int'l (178), Cafe De Coral (341), Luk Fook (590), Bonjour (653), I.T (999)
Dairy: Biostime (1112), CH Modern (1117), YST Dairy (1431), Mengniu (2319), Huishan Dairy (6863)

Stock in Focus: Biostime International (1112.HK)

Last Close: HK$25.65
Entry: HK$25.35 or below
Target: HK$29.05
Stop-loss: HK$23.50
YTD/1M/3M/12M % Change: 60.5%/10.3%/1.2%/0.6%
Market Cap: HK$16.17 billion
3M Average Daily Volume: 3.14 million shares
FY1 Forward P/E: 18.6

Key Points:

Prices at global dairy trade auctions are showing recovery with a 6.4% increase since end-March.
The company's pediatric nutritional and baby care segment saw a 12.8% revenue decline in Q1, but it maintained a stable market share.
The China Food and Drug Administration's new regulation on baby formula is expected to increase the competitiveness of large dairy enterprises.
Adult nutritional and healthcare products saw a 48.8% revenue increase in Q1 due to the acquisition of Swisse, an Australian brand with a growing market share.

Today's Top Picks

UMP (722.HK)

Last Close: HK$1.43
Target Price: HK$1.61
Stop-loss Price: HK$1.33
Reason: Share price rebounded from the bottom of the upward trend, with RSI above 50.

Clear Lift (1341.HK)

Last Close: HK$1.13
Target Price: HK$1.25
Stop-loss Price: HK$1.09
Reason: Stock price bottomed out, suggesting a potential rebound.

Market Data and Performance

Best and Worst Performers (Previous Day)

Stock Code	Price (HK$)	1D Change (%)	5D Change (%)	1M Change (%)	YTD Change (%)	Turnover (HK$m)	FY1 P/E	FY2 P/E
CHINA PRECIOUS M	1194.HK	0.249	6.4	10.2	-15.6	12.4	N/A	N/A
LEE & MAN PAPER	2314.HK	5.670	3.7	10.5	30.9	138.6	9.9	9.0

Stock Code	Price (HK$)	1D Change (%)	5D Change (%)	1M Change (%)	YTD Change (%)	Turnover (HK$m)	FY1 P/E	FY2 P/E
WANDA HOTEL DEV	169.HK	0.820	-7.9	-4.7	-11.7	0.2	N/A	N/A
CHINA HIGH-SPEED	658.HK	5.510	-7.9	-8.5	-11.7	90.8	6.8	6.6

Valuation Analysis

Major Indices

Index	FY16E P/E	Long-term Avg. Fwd. P/E	Deviation from Avg. (%)	FY1 EPS Growth (%)	FY2 EPS Growth (%)
HSI	11.4	11.0	4.4	-8.7	10.5
HSCEI	7.3	7.9	-7.3	-6.0	9.1
Shanghai Comp	13.4	10.7	24.9	20.2	13.4
S&P 500	17.8	15.3	16.3	8.9	13.4

External Market Conditions

US stocks fell due to increased Brexit fears and lower oil prices, with the Dow down 119 points, S&P 500 down 19 points, and NASDAQ down 64 points.
ADR prices dropped, effectively putting HSI down 251 points, closing at 20,791.
Oil prices fell below $50 per barrel, with New York crude oil futures at US$49.07, down US$1.49.
Gold futures rose to US$1,275.90 per ounce, up US$3.20.

A-share Premium to H-share

LUOYANG GLASS-H: H share price HK$4.27, A share price RMB 26.64, A-share premium to H-share: 637.7%
ZHEJIANG SHIBA-H: H share price HK$7.96, A share price RMB 25.89, A-share premium to H-share: 284.6%
ZTE-H: H share price HK$10.04, A share price RMB 13.81, A-share premium to H-share: 62.6%
CMOC-H: H share price HK$1.63, A share price RMB 4.38, A-share premium to H-share: 217.7%
CHINA VANKE-H: H share price HK$18.32, A share price RMB 24.43, A-share premium to H-share: 57.7%
BYD CO LTD-H: H share price HK$45.95, A share price RMB 60.35, A-share premium to H-share: 55.3%
CHINA OILFIELD-H: H share price HK$2.88, A share price RMB 5.76, A-share premium to H-share: 107.0%

Summary of Key Information

TCL Communication proposed privatization with a 34.65% premium, likely to boost its stock price.
Biostime International is recommended as a "buy" due to its competitive advantage and recent acquisitions.
HSI and HSCEI both declined, influenced by external market weakness.
US stocks dropped due to Brexit fears and falling oil prices, affecting ADRs and indirectly HSI.
Dairy sector showed signs of recovery, with Biostime International as a key beneficiary.
A-share premium to H-share indicates significant valuation differences across sectors, with some companies showing high premiums.

Conclusion

The Hong Kong market faced pressure from weak global conditions, particularly the US market. However, there are opportunities in the dairy and consumer sectors, with Biostime International and other stocks showing potential for growth. Investors should monitor the impact of external factors and consider strategic entries based on the provided targets and stop-loss levels.

展开完整摘要