20160505-新鸿基金融集团-INVESTMENT_DAILY_NOTE_15页_2mb

Investment Daily Note Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive summary of the Hong Kong and global market conditions, focusing on the Hang Seng Index (HSI) and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI), as well as other key indices and market data. It includes information on stock performance, sector analysis, valuation metrics, and economic indicators.

Main Market Trends

• HSI: Closed at 20,526, down 0.7% from the previous day, with a -6.3% year-to-date (YTD) decline.
• HSCEI: Closed at 8,697, down 0.6% from the previous day, with a 10.0% YTD increase.
• Shanghai Composite: Closed at 2,991, with a 0.0% daily change and a 15.5% YTD increase.
• Shenzhen Composite: Closed at 1,929, with a 0.0% daily change and a 16.5% YTD increase.

Market and HSI Up/Down Ratios

• The market and HSI up/down ratios over the past seven trading days indicate a mixed performance.
• Approximately 1,700 listed companies on the Main Board (excluding GEM, ETF, and unlisted/suspended companies) are considered in this analysis.

Result Calendar

• A list of upcoming results and dividend announcements for various companies, including MANULIFE-S, CLP HOLDINGS, and others, is provided. These dates are for reference and investors should consult HKEx for more details.

Stock in Focus

China Singyes Solar (750.HK)

• Last Close: HK$2.66

• Entry Price: HK$2.50

• Target Price: HK$2.75

• Stop-loss Price: HK$2.25

• YTD/1M/3M/12M % Change: -52.2%/-13.6%/-22.7%/-78.2%

• Market Cap: HK$1.85bn

• 3M Average Daily Volume: 6.00mn shares

• FY1 Forward P/E: 3.7x

• Performance: The company's share price has fallen over 50% YTD due to poor performance in 2015.

• Positive Outlook: Management projects a 300 MW installed capacity to be completed in Q1 2016, with a forecasted return to 2014 levels for the solar EPC business.

• Government Policy: The Chinese government's feed-in tariff policy is expected to go into effect in July 2016, which may drive a rebound in the share price.

• Valuation: The stock is trading at a 40% discount to its five-year average P/E.

Today's Top Picks

• Perfect Group (3326.HK):

  • Price: HK$5.50
  • Target Price: HK$6.05
  • Stop-loss Price: HK$4.95
  • Reason: Strong momentum, suggesting a potential small bet.

• Creative Energy (8109.HK):

  • Price: HK$0.255
  • Target Price: HK$0.280
  • Stop-loss Price: HK$0.220
  • Reason: Price rose with increasing turnover, indicating a potential rebound.

Sector Performance

• Best Performing Sectors:

  • Airline: +4.3%
  • IPP: +1.5%
  • Technology: +0.7%
  • Consumer Staples: +0.4%
  • Telecoms Equipment: +0.4%
  • Department Store: +0.3%
  • HK Telecoms: +0.3%
  • Local Property: +0.2%
  • Local Banks: +0.2%
  • Automobile: +0.2%
  • Brokerages: +0.2%
  • Environmental and New Energy: +0.2%

• Major Stocks in Best Performing Sectors:

  • Airline: Cathay Pacific (293), China East Air (670), Air China (753), China South Air (1055)
  • IPP: China Res Power (836), Huaneng Power Int'l (902), Datang Int'l Power (991), Huadian Power Int'l (1071), China Power Int'l (2380)
  • Technology: Kingdee (268), Chinasoft (354), Tencent (700), NetDragon (777), Kingsoft (3888)
  • Consumer Staples: Want Want (151), Uni-President (220), Tingyi (322), Hengan Int'l (1044), Sun Art Retail (6808)
  • Telecoms Equipment: China Com Service (552), ZTE (763), Trigiant (1300), Comba (2342)
  • Department Store: NWDS China (825), Springland (1700), Intime (1833), Golden Eagle (3308), Parkinson Group (3368)
  • HK Telecoms: HutchTel HK (215), Smartone (315), HKT-SS (6823)
  • Local Property: CK Hutchison (1), Henderson Land (12), SHK Prop (16), New World Dev (17), Sino Land (83)
  • Local Banks: Hang Seng Bank (11), BEA (23), Chong Hing Bank (1111), BOCHK (2388), Dah Sing Banking (2356)
  • Automobile: Geely Auto (175), Dongfeng Motor (489), BRILLIANCE CHI (1114), BYD Co. (1211), Great Wall Motor (2333)
  • Brokerages: First Shanghai (227), Central China Sec. (1375), CITIC Sec. (6030), Haitong Sec. (6837), China Galaxy Sec. (6881)
  • Environmental and New Energy: China EB Int'l (257), BJ Ent Water (371), China Longyuan (916), Xinyi Solar (968), CGN Power (1816)
  • Chinese Telecoms: China Telecom (728), China Unicom (762), China Mobile (941)
  • Agriculture: First Tractor (38), Sinofert (297), Ko Yo Group (827), National Agri (1236), China Bluechem (3983)
  • Durable Consumables: Welling Hldg. (382), Skyworth Digital (751), Hisense Kelon Elec (921), TCL Multimedia (1070)

Valuation and Forward P/E

• HSI: FY16E P/E of 11.0, with a deviation from long-term average of 0.7%
• HSCEI: FY16E P/E of 7.1, with a deviation from long-term average of -10.2%
• Shanghai Composite: FY16E P/E of 13.5, with a deviation from long-term average of 25.3%
• S&P 500: FY16E P/E of 17.5, with a deviation from long-term average of 14.4%

Market Data Highlights

Best Performers

• REXLOT HOLDINGS (555.HK): +33.1%
• CHINA EAST AIR-H (670.HK): +6.9%
• CHINA SOUTHERN-H (1055.HK): +5.8%
• BRILLIANCE CHINA (1114.HK): +5.0%
• NETDRAGON WEBS (777.HK): +4.8%

Worst Performers

• RENHE COMMERCIAL (1387.HK): -7.3%
• PW MEDTECH GROUP (1358.HK): -6.0%
• PETRO-KING (2178.HK): -5.3%
• BBMG CORP-H (2009.HK): -5.0%
• BOER POWER HOLDI (2866.HK): -5.0%

External Market Conditions

• U.S. Stocks: Dropped due to worse-than-expected private-sector jobs data.
  • Dow: Closed at 17,651, down 99 points
  • S&P 500: Closed at 2,051, down 12 points
  • NASDAQ Comp: Closed at 4,726, down 37 points
• ADR Impact: ADRs dropped, effectively putting HSI down 278 points, closing at 20,247.
• Commodities and Precious Metals:
  • New York crude oil futures: Closed at US$43.78/bbl, up US$0.13
  • New York gold futures: Closed at US$1,286.50/oz, down US$5.10
• CRB Index: Closed at 179.9, down 1.4%
• Comex Gold: Closed at 1,283.1, up 1.3%
• Comex Silver: Closed at 17.470, down 0.5%
• Nymex WTI Crude: Closed at 44.46, down 3.4%
• ICE Brent Crude: Closed at 45.25, down 6.0%
• LME Copper: Closed at 4,867.00, down 1.9%
• LME Aluminum: Closed at 1,633.50, down 0.9%
• CBT Wheat: Closed at 470.00, down 1.2%
• CBT Corn: Closed at 377.00, down 2.6%
• CBT Soybean: Closed at 1035.75, up 1.7%

A-share Premium to H-share

• A table showing the A-share premium to H-share for various companies, with notable examples:
  • LUOYANG GLASS-H: A-share premium of 616.6%
  • SHANDONG MOLON-H: A-share premium of 275.3%
  • PETROCHINA-H: A-share premium of 59.9%
  • CHINA SHIPPING-H: A-share premium of 205.2%
  • CHINA COSCO HO-H: A-share premium of 132.8%
  • SICHUAN EXP-H: A-share premium of 97.5%
  • BBMG CORP-H: A-share premium of 95.5%

Key Insights

• Market Sentiment: Hong Kong stocks extended their losses, with HSI down 151 points and HSCEI down 51 points.
• Sector Performance: Airline and IPP sectors showed positive performance, while others were mixed.
• Valuation Opportunities: China Singyes Solar (750.HK) is noted for its attractive valuation and potential rebound in Q2.
• Economic Indicators: U.S. interest rates fell, and the USD Dollar Index dropped, affecting global markets.
• Short Selling: Several stocks, including YUANDA CHINA HLD (2789.HK) and others, showed significant short selling activity.

Conclusion

The document outlines a mixed market environment with some positive sector performances and significant downward pressure on certain stocks. It highlights potential investment opportunities, particularly in China Singyes Solar, and provides a detailed analysis of market trends, valuations, and economic data to assist investors in making informed decisions.