2023-09-24-IMF-北非的非正式性_劳动力市场动态和商业周期（英）_36页_812kb

Summary of "Informality, Labor Market Dynamics, and Business Cycles in North Africa"

Core Content

This IMF Working Paper explores the role of informal employment in labor market adjustments in North Africa during business cycles, with a particular focus on the 2020 pandemic recession and its aftermath. The paper uses empirical methods such as regression analysis, correlation analysis, and event studies to analyze how informal employment interacts with output fluctuations and labor market dynamics.

Main Findings

• Informal Employment and Business Cycles: Informal employment in North Africa is countercyclical, meaning it rises during economic downturns and falls during upturns. This behavior suggests that the informal sector acts as a buffer for workers who lose formal jobs, especially in the absence of strong safety nets.

• Pandemic Impact: Unlike past recessions, informal employment in North Africa contracted sharply during the 2020 pandemic recession. This is attributed to the greater impact on labor-intensive informal sectors, indicating a deviation from the traditional countercyclical role of the informal sector.

• Okun's Law in North Africa: The paper finds that labor markets in North Africa respond more mutedly to output fluctuations compared to other regions. This is reflected in lower Okun coefficients, which indicate that unemployment is less sensitive to changes in output in these economies. The Okun coefficients are statistically significant and negative, as expected, across most country groups.

• Determinants of Okun Coefficients: The analysis shows that informality is a significant determinant of Okun coefficients. Other factors, such as labor and product market rigidities, legal system quality, and the composition of GDP, also influence the magnitude of Okun's coefficients. However, informality remains a key factor even after controlling for these variables.

Key Information

Informality in North Africa

• Informal employment accounts for nearly two-thirds of total employment in the region, with self-employment serving as the primary indicator.
• Informal employment is widespread, with about 40% of total employment in 2019, which is lower than the average for EMDEs (50%).
• The informal sector is a significant part of the economy, with informal activities contributing about one-third of GDP on average.

Labor Market Characteristics

• High Unemployment: North African economies have some of the highest unemployment rates globally, averaging nearly 11% in 2019.
• Low Cyclicity: Labor market indicators show little variability over the business cycle, which is in contrast to advanced economies.
• Gender and Youth Disparities: Female labor force participation rates are particularly low, and youth unemployment remains high, indicating structural issues in the labor market.

Okun's Law and Informality

• Okun's Law Relationship: The study uses the Okun's law framework to examine the relationship between output fluctuations and unemployment. The paper finds that the Okun coefficient is smaller in countries with higher informality, suggesting a weaker link between output and unemployment.
• Global Comparison: Okun's coefficients are significantly higher in advanced economies compared to emerging markets and low-income countries, with North African economies showing lower sensitivity.
• Impact of Informality on Okun's Coefficients: Informality is a major determinant of Okun's coefficients, with higher informality leading to a smaller coefficient (weaker response of unemployment to output changes).

Event Studies

• Countercyclical Behavior: Informal employment in North Africa behaves countercyclically, with a more pronounced response during downturns.
• Pandemic Anomaly: The 2020 pandemic recession was an exception, with informal employment contracting sharply, indicating a departure from previous countercyclical patterns.
• Post-Pandemic Recovery: Informal employment in North Africa fell modestly or increased during the post-pandemic recovery, contrasting with the sharp contraction during the recession.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that informal employment continues to play a significant role in labor market adjustments in North Africa, though its traditional countercyclical behavior was not evident during the pandemic. The findings suggest that the informal sector is likely to remain a large part of the labor market in the post-pandemic era, particularly in medium- and high-informality countries. The results also highlight the need for structural reforms to address labor market rigidities and improve the resilience of employment in the face of economic shocks.

Annex References

• Data Sources: ILOSTAT, IMF World Economic Outlook, and other international databases.
• Countries by Informality Grouping: North African countries are generally categorized as medium- or high-informality, with Mauritania being the exception.
• Econometric Results: Panel regressions and correlation analysis show that informality significantly affects Okun's coefficients.
• Correlation Analysis: Demonstrates the negative correlation between informal employment and cyclical output in medium- and high-informality countries.