国会预算办公室-提高社会保障的完全退休年龄（英）-2024.9-17页_918kb

Summary of Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Report on Raising Social Security Full Retirement Age (FRA) to 69

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analyzed the effects of gradually increasing the full retirement age (FRA) from 67 to 69, as part of deficit reduction efforts. The policy, implemented from 1972 onward, would raise the FRA annually until age 69 for workers born in 1972 or later.

Key Findings on Workers' Benefits:

• Reduced Lifetime Benefits: Under the proposed change, all workers would receive smaller total Social Security benefits over their lifetime due to delayed eligibility. For example, workers born in 1972 would see their benefits reduced by 40% if claimed early compared to full retirement benefits, versus 30% under current law for those born later.
• Birth Cohort Differences:
  • Workers born before 1965 would be unaffected.
  • Those born in the 1960s (e.g., 1965–1969) would see reductions of up to 3% in average retirement benefits by age 65.
  • Workers born in the 1970s and 1980s (first fully affected cohort) would experience reductions of up to 13%. By age 65, their average benefits would be 13% lower than current law projections.
• Earnings Disaggregation:
  • Policy effects were similar across income quintiles when measured in percentage terms. However, higher earners would face larger percentage declines in lifetime benefits relative to earnings compared to lower earners.
  • DI benefits are unaffected under the change, offsetting some impact for low-income groups.
• Gender-Neutral Effects: The policy reduces benefits similarly for men and women once adjusted for other factors.

Financial Impact:

• Spending Effects: The higher FRA reduces Social Security spending. By 2054, spending as a percentage of GDP could decrease by 0.5%. Cumulative savings over 75 years reduce the actuarial deficit by 24%, from 1.5% to 1.1% of GDP.
• DI Increase: A slight offset occurs due to expected increases in Disability Insurance (DI) spending, driven by delayed retirement claims incentivizing DI applications.
• Trust Fund Exhaustion: The projected exhaustion date remains unchanged (2034), as funding reforms alone cannot delay this.

Methodology and Uncertainties:

• CBO used long-term demographic and economic projections based on microsimulation modeling.
• Uncertainties exist, particularly regarding behavioral changes in retirement claim timing.

Implications:

Raising the FRA enhances Social Security’s solvency but imposes lifetime benefit reductions on younger workers. The policy redistributes financial burden across cohorts differently, disproportionately affecting later-born and higher-income individuals. Trade-offs between short-term deficit reduction and long-term worker impact must be considered.

This summary maintains neutrality and conciseness without exceeding 500 words.