国会预算办公室-长期社会保障预测的挑战（英）-2025.7_11页_1mb

报告摘要

CBO projects the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASDI) trust fund will be exhausted in 2033.
Disability Insurance (DI) trust fund will be depleted by 2060.
Combined trust fund would run out in 2034.
Resource availability drops 22% the first year after exhaustion, increasing over time.
75-year actuarial deficit: 1.7% of GDP equivalent to 4.9% of taxable payroll.

Demographics are central, affecting the ratio of employed to beneficiaries.
Fertility rates: Foreign nationals historically have higher fertility; CBO uses separate rates for US-born and foreign-born women.
Future fertility trends uncertain due to global declines; research informs potential changes.
Net immigration projections: CBO's estimates are lower than SSA's but higher than Census Bureau's; sensitive to policy changes, limited data, and enforcement efforts.

Changes in net immigration affect population size and Social Security finances, including tax revenues and benefit obligations.
Immigration increases population; without it, US population shrinks after 2033.
Research on enforcement impacts migration patterns and voluntary emigration.

CBO integrates research to refine projections, such as labor market effects of enforcement and immigrant fertility choices.
Projections are revised based on updates incorporating administrative actions affecting immigration flows

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