【世界银行】摆脱财政顺周期陷阱有可能吗？来自中东和北非的证据-2024.10_19页_1mb

Summary of "Is Escaping the Fiscal Pro-Cyclicality Trap Possible? Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa"

Objective

This paper examines fiscal policy cyclicality in 184 countries from 2000 to 2022, focusing on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, to assess the possibility of escaping the fiscal pro-cyclicality trap.

Key Findings

• Fiscal policy cyclicality varies widely across countries. High-income countries generally exhibit countercyclical behavior, while low- and middle-income countries, including many in MENA, often show procyclicality or neutrality.
• In MENA, countries like Jordan, Oman, and Qatar have successfully transitioned to countercyclical fiscal policy despite high output volatility.
• Non-tax revenues are more procyclical than tax revenues in MENA, acting as stabilizers despite not aligning with countercyclical goals. Subsidies tend to be less countercyclical than other expenditures, potentially undermining stability.
• Significant differences exist in cyclicality assessments across fiscal variables (e.g., expenditures vs. revenues).

Conclusions and Policy Implications

• Escaping the fiscal pro-cyclicality trap is possible, even in volatile regions like MENA, through targeted reforms.
• Policy recommendations include strengthening automatic stabilizers, improving revenue mobilization, reducing distortionary subsidies, and enhancing fiscal discipline to support countercyclical behavior and long-term growth.

Methods

• Uses correlation analysis of fiscal variables with GDP cyclical components.
• Analyzes subcomponents of revenues and expenditures for granular insights.
• Employs a large dataset (184 countries) with annual data over two decades.