2024-11-10-世界银行-摆脱财政顺周期陷阱有可能吗_来自中东和北非的证据（英）_19页_1mb

The paper examines the possibility of escaping the fiscal pro-cyclicality trap, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, using data from 184 countries between 2000 and 2022. Fiscal pro-cyclicality amplifies economic fluctuations, while countercyclical policy stabilizes the economy. Key findings include: while richer countries tend to have more countercyclical policies, many low- and middle-income countries, including several in MENA, exhibit procyclicality. Subcomponents show that tax revenues are often countercyclical, but non-tax revenues and subsidies (in MENA) are more procyclical. Notable cases like Jordan, Oman, and Qatar shifted to countercyclical policies through reforms. Policy implications recommend enhancing automatic stabilizers, changing tax structures, reducing subsidies, and addressing fiscal space constraints to promote countercyclical fiscal behavior for better stability and growth.