2024-10-27-世界银行-阿根廷的顺周期财政政策_长期婚姻的驱动因素和渠道（英）_48页_2mb

Argentina Fiscal Policy Procyclicality Analysis

This paper by Julián Folgar and Francisco García Posleman examines the drivers and channels of Argentina's fiscal policy, emphasizing its pro-cyclical nature. Fiscal policy can play a critical role in mitiging business cycle volatility, yet Argentina demonstrates high fiscal procyclicality, a key finding throughout.

Fiscal procyclicality occurs when expansionary fiscal measures are taken during economic upswings and contractionary measures during downturns, which exacerbates economic fluctuations and can negatively impact growth and poverty reduction.

Key Findings

Fiscal Spending:

• Both public expenditures and revenues contribute to procyclicality, but spending has a stronger influence.

• The wage bill is a major driver of fiscal procyclicality, with both the quantity (number of public employees) and price (average wage) effects exhibiting strong positive correlation with GDP growth.

• Pension Expenditure:

  • Argentina's pension system, particularly through indexation mechanisms, shows significant procyclicality.

  • The "price" effect (real value of benefits) largely explains the procyclical behavior, tied to economic cycles via flawed and unstable indexation rules.

• Automatic stabilizers (such as unemployment benefits) have a limited role in countercyclically adjusting fiscal policy.

Fiscal Revenue:

• Traditional taxes (income, value-added) show statistically insignificant correlations with GDP cycles, suggesting neutrality.
• Unconventional taxes, however, are largely acyclical and do not contribute significantly to fiscal procyclicality.

Structural Implications:

• The analysis tracks the Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balance (CAPB), finding Argentina's structural fiscal position has deteriorated over time, even prior to the commodities cycle ending.

• Discretionary fiscal policy tends to expand during booms and contract during downturns, amplifying economic swings.

Conclusion

Fiscal policy measures in Argentina demonstrate a persistent pro-cyclical tendency, driven primarily by public expenditure. Changing the indexation rules for pension benefits, enhancing coordination in wage bill policies, and establishing mechanisms to insulate fiscal policy from the business cycle represent key policy options. Further reforms are required to counteract procyclicality and improve macroeconomic stability.