20230723-东海证券-电池及储能行业周报_政策持续推动电动车行业发展_锂电市场需求稳步回暖_12页

报告摘要

Market Movement: The battery sector experienced a steep decline of 336% during the week (July 17-23), underperforming the沪深300 index by 138 points. Net inflows were seen in companies like 中银绒业, 蔚蓝锂芯, 华宝新能, 珠海冠宇, and 豪鹏科技, while net outflows occurred in firms like 保力新, 正业科技, 盛弘股份, 金冠股份, and 德方纳米.
Policy Impact: Ongoing government measures, including the July 21发改委 announcement promoting auto consumption, are boosting electric vehicle demand. This led to a 7% year-on-year increase in July 1-16 new energy car retail sales in China, with an expected full-year EV sales target exceeding 900 million vehicles.
Price Trends: Supply and demand dynamics stabilized across key components. Lithium salt prices held steady after depth bargaining; positive materials like iron lithium and ternary materials prices followed upstream trends but showed recovery; negative materials saw modest demand increases, maintaining price stability overall.
Key Recommendations: Focus on 亿纬锂能 for its overseas expansion, vertical integration in materials, and strong battery and storage business growth, including plans for 30GWh large-cylinder capacity by 2025.

Policy Support: New guidelines from multiple departments encourage home energy storage adoption, with incentives for rural areas, such as subsidies in places like Zhejiang and Henan, driving market acceleration due to rising peak-to-peak prices.
Market Activity: Weekly bidding increased significantly, with storage project scales rising by 742% in capacity, indicating strong sector recovery; system and EPC bid prices decreased or increased moderately, reflecting competitive market dynamics.
Key Recommendations: Advise attention to 上能电气 for its full-industry layout in storage, including project wins and leading逆变器 shipments, and 科士达 for its partnerships with industry leaders like 宁德时代 and expansion into international markets via suppliers like SolarEdge.

Global Economic Uncertainty: Potential slowdowns in overseas economies could affect demand for electric vehicles and energy storage components.
Raw Material Volatility: Fluctuations in upstream prices could impact profitability.
Installation Growth Concerns: If global energy storage deployments fall short of projections, it may hinder the earnings of involved companies.

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