德银-中国-健康保健行业-中国保健业：2017年8月月度医院Rx追踪-20171017-Deutsche_Bank-China_HealthcareMonthly_Hospital_Rx_Tracker,August_2017_31页_5mb

报告摘要

Total hospital drug sales in August 2017 grew by 1.9% YoY, slightly lower than the 1.7% in July and 7.3% in FY16.
The growth was moderate and mixed across different drug categories and companies.

Ai Tan (apatinib): Strong growth at 83% YoY, down from 128% in July.
Ai Li (irinotecan): Grew 20% YoY, compared to 16% in July.
Ai Su (docetaxel): Grew 12% YoY, down from 0% in July.
Ai Heng (oxaliplatin): Grew -5% YoY, slightly better than -1% in July.
Kai Te Li (sevoflurane): Grew -17% YoY, down from -13% in July.
Loversol: Grew 9% YoY, down from 12% in July.
On a three-month rolling basis, the average growth for Ai Li and Ai Su was 15% and 6% in 3MAug17, respectively, compared to -2% and 14% in 1H17.

Runzhong (entecavir): Flat at -1% YoY, compared to -3% in July.
Kaifen (flurbiprofen): Grew 22% YoY, up from 21% in July.
Tianqingganmei: Grew 2% YoY, down from -6% in July.
Kaishi: Grew -18% YoY, down from -18% in July.
On a three-month rolling basis, the average growth for Runzhong and Ganmei was 1% and -2% in 3MAug17, respectively, compared to 8% and -1% in 1H17.

EPIAO: Grew -12% YoY, up from -18% in July.
TPIAO: Grew 20% YoY, up from 16% in July.
Yisaipu: Grew 12% YoY, up from 2% in July.
SEPO: Delivered 80% YoY growth, up from 76% in July.
Deutsche Bank raised the price target to HKD15.1 from HKD13.5, based on a 28x 2018E EPS (vs. 25x previously used), citing limited pricing pressure and upside from NRDL revision. Risks include price cuts and delays in product launches.

NBP: Grew 16% YoY, up from 7% in July.
Oulaining: Grew -11% YoY, down from -7% in July.
Xuanning: Grew -1% YoY, down from -4% in July.
Oncology drugs such as Duomeisu and Jinyouli led the growth with 57% and 116% YoY, respectively, up from 70% and 102% in July.
On a three-month rolling basis, the average growth for NBP and Oulaining was 15% and -8% in 3MAug17, respectively, compared to 18% and -10% in 1H17.

Seasonality and the CNY effect may have influenced the performance of some drugs, especially in the first quarter.
Monthly sales data should be interpreted with caution due to potential seasonality effects.
Investor caution is advised as the data may be selectively indicative.