【世界银行】塞拉利昂经济最新消息：释放塞拉利昂电力部门的潜力，打破危机循环-2024.10

Sierra Leone Economic Update Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of Sierra Leone's recent economic developments and outlook, with a focus on the power sector's role in the country's economic challenges and opportunities. It outlines key trends, fiscal and monetary indicators, and policy recommendations aimed at improving economic stability and unlocking the potential of the power sector.

Main Economic Trends and Outlook

Global and Regional Growth

• Global GDP growth slowed in 2023 to 2.6% from 3.0% in 2022, with weak prospects for 2024 due to tight monetary policies, financial conditions, and global trade slowdowns.
• Emerging markets and developing economies (excluding China) are projected to grow slightly in 2024 at 3.5%, driven by trade improvements and recovery in domestic demand.
• Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) grew at 3% in 2023, marking a second consecutive year of slowdown, but is expected to rebound to 3.5% in 2024 due to improved global trade and policy measures for macroeconomic stability.

Sierra Leone's Economic Performance

• 2023 growth reached 5.7%, driven by strong performance in the mining sector, especially iron ore.
• 2024 growth is projected to slow to 4.3% due to declining iron ore prices and weak mining sector performance.
• Medium-term growth is expected to recover to 4.7%, supported by a resurgence in the service sector, improved agricultural productivity via the "Feed Salone" program, and continued fiscal efforts.

Inflation and Monetary Policy

• Inflation peaked at 54.6% in October 2023 and eased to 25% by August 2024.
• Monetary tightening by the Bank of Sierra Leone (BSL) helped reduce inflation, with policy rates increased by 525 basis points in 2023 and further by 250 basis points in 2024.
• The Leone depreciated by 18% in 2023, but showed relative stability from mid-2023 onward.

Fiscal and Debt Situation

• Public debt as a share of GDP fell from 53.5% in 2022 to 46.2% in 2023, but debt service obligations remain a significant risk.
• Domestic borrowing has increased, with the one-year treasury bill rate reaching 41% in 2024, which could lead to a debt spiral.
• Domestic revenue remains among the lowest globally at 7.4% of GDP, with limited progress in 2023 due to delayed tax policy implementation and compliance gaps.

Current Account and Reserves

• The current account deficit improved slightly to 5% of GDP in 2023 from 5.4% in 2022, driven by strong iron ore exports and subdued import demand.
• Reserves declined to 1.8 months of import cover by August 2024 due to high external debt servicing needs.

Power Sector Overview

Sector Performance

• Only 36% of Sierra Leone's population has access to electricity, with significant geographic and income disparities.
• 80% of rural households lack electricity access, compared to 60% in urban areas.
• Firms cite inadequate electricity as a major constraint, leading to higher costs, production disruptions, and reduced profitability.

Key Challenges

• EDSA (Electricity Distribution and Supply Authority) faces high operational and commercial inefficiencies, with losses due to low revenue collection, power pilferage, poor billing cycles, and network constraints.
• The sector is heavily reliant on liquid fuel-based generation, which increases costs and strains the budget.
• Government subsidies to the power sector reached US$38 million in 2023 (0.6% of GDP), and are expected to rise to 1% of GDP in 2024.
• Cumulative arrears from independent power producers (IPPs) and electricity imports reached US$75.7 million by August 2024.

Key Policy Priorities

• Restoring macroeconomic stability through improved fiscal management and debt sustainability.
• Protecting vulnerable households from inflationary pressures.
• Improving fiscal and debt sustainability by enhancing revenue mobilization and expenditure control.
• Strengthening public financial management and restoring budget credibility.
• Enhancing the power sector through the Action Plan 2030, which aims to make the sector financially sustainable.

Action Plan 2030

Pillars of the Plan

1. Green Energy Transition: Shift from expensive liquid fuel-based generation (heavy fuel oil and diesel) to solar and other renewable sources, as well as cheaper imported electricity.
2. Improving EDSA Performance: Implement low-cost, no-regret actions to reduce losses, improve billing and collections, and enhance corporate governance and commercial management.
3. Policy and Regulatory Framework: Establish a clear, transparent, and comprehensive regulatory environment to support private sector investment in distribution.

Expected Outcomes

• Increased electricity access through targeted investments and reforms.
• Reduced fiscal dependency on the power sector by improving efficiency and diversifying energy sources.
• Attracting private investment through improved governance and regulatory clarity.

Key Stakeholders and Support

• The European Union and UK are focusing on mini-grid and off-grid access.
• The US Millennium Challenge Corporation is working on a comprehensive compact to improve the transmission network.
• The Japan International Cooperation Agency is enhancing the distribution network in the Freetown peninsula.
• The World Bank supports the EDSA performance improvement through network strengthening and governance reforms.

Risks and Challenges

• Geopolitical uncertainties, such as the Gaza war and Chinese economic slowdown, pose risks to global growth and Sierra Leone's economy.
• Domestic political instability following the 2023 coup attempt could hinder reform efforts.
• Climatic and health risks, including extreme weather events and a weak health system, threaten economic stability.
• Weak institutional capacity and low tax compliance continue to challenge fiscal sustainability.

Conclusion

Sierra Leone's economy is at a crossroads, with growth slowing and the power sector remaining a critical constraint. The Action Plan 2030 offers a structured approach to improve the sector's financial viability and reduce fiscal burden. Success will depend on effective implementation, private sector involvement, and strong governance reforms. The government must also address domestic revenue shortfalls and debt sustainability to ensure long-term economic stability and development.