世界银行-通过综合建模加强流行病防范和应对（英）-2024-102页_3mb

Strengthening pandemic preparedness and response through integrated modelling

This report discusses the use of integrated epidemiological–macroeconomic modelling to strengthen pandemic preparedness and response. Integrated models combine transmission dynamics with economic impacts to provide a comprehensive framework for decision-making amidst high uncertainty.

Key findings:

1. Challenges in Policy-Making: Policymakers face uncertainty, time pressure, and interdisciplinary gaps during epidemics. Traditional siloed approaches limit the understanding of complex interactions between health and economic systems.

2. Role of Integrated Modelling:

   • Captures interactions between health and economic factors.
   • Supports evidence-based policy-making by comparing the trade-offs of interventions.
   • Aids in designing control strategies, evaluating economic policies, and refining preparedness efforts.

3. Proposed Initiatives:

   • Formalize Integrated Modelling: Institutionalize models into policymaking and define clear responsibilities.
   • Establish Active Communication: Foster collaboration between policymakers and modellers.
   • Match Policies to Models: Ensure models adapt to evolving policy priorities.
   • Build Local Capacity: Expand interdisciplinary training and data ecosystems.

The report emphasizes that integrated modelling enhances robust decision-making by addressing complexity and uncertainty, but requires institutional frameworks and cross-sectoral collaboration for effective implementation.