2025-06-10-花旗集团-医疗保健房地产（HR）_医疗房地产（HR.N）_模型更新_12页_490kb

报告摘要

Citi Research Model Update for Healthcare Realty (HR.N)

Citi Research has issued a neutral rating for Healthcare Realty (HR.N) following a model update based on revised financing, operating, and transaction assumptions. The target price for HR.N is lowered from $18 to $15, reflecting a discount to the estimated net asset value (NAV) of $17.06.

Key financial projections show a decrease in expected core FFO (Funds from Operations) per share (FFOps) from $1.59 in previous estimates to $1.57 for 2025. Expected share price return is 3.3%, dividend yield is 6.4%, and total expected return is 9.7%. The valuation assumes a 9.5x multiple for 2025 AFFO, compared to the target price.

Risks include potential economic downturns impacting leasing, interest rate volatility, cap rate changes, and integration challenges from the HTA merger.

Table: Key Financial and Valuation Metrics (as per Citi Research)

Metric	2025E	Current Estimate	Change
FFOps ($/share)	1.57	1.59	↓0.02
Target Price (US$)	15.00	18.00	↓
Dividend Yield (%)	6.4	-	New
Expected Total Return (%)	9.7	-	New
P/AFFO (x)	12.3	-	New

Growth in core FFOps is projected to stabilize later in 2025 and beyond, but risks remain. The company's portfolio focuses on on-campus healthcare properties, leading to a defensive valuation assumption.

Overall, the update reflects Citi's conservative view considering market conditions and operational factors.

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