2025-06-10-花旗集团-国轩高科（002074）_国轩高科（002074.SZ）_模型更新_目标价上调至29.3元_股；维持买入_13页_471kb

CITI maintains a Buy rating on Gotion High Tech (002074.SZ) following a model update based on the 1Q25 results. Key changes include: target price increased to Rmb29.30 from Rmb29.00, due to revised earnings forecasts downward by 24% for 2025E (to Rmb1,298 million) and 17% for 2026E (to Rmb2,087 million), factoring management guidance and lower unit gross profit assumptions. Battery producers are expected to have a more defensive competitive landscape in 2025E, supporting Gotion's unit GP margin. Capacity is projected to grow to 141 GWh by YE2025 and 171 GWh by YE2026. The company maintains ~4% market share in Chinese EV batteries and is a Tier-2 supplier. Risks include slower capacity ramp-up, lower margins, and EV demand uncertainties.