2025-06-10-花旗集团-太阳石酒店投资公司（SHO）_太阳石酒店投资公司（SHO.N）_模型更新_11页_253kb

Sunstone Hotel Investors (SHO.N) Citi Research Model Update Summary

Key Model Update

• Reason for Update: Reflects disposition of Hilton New Orleans St. Charles asset and year-to-date share repurchases.
• FY 2025E FFO: Unchanged at $0.89 per share.
• Target Price: $9.50, effective as of the report date.
• Expected Returns and Yield:
  • Share Price Return: 4.7%
  • Dividend Yield: 4.0%
  • Total Expected Return: 8.7%

Financial Highlights (Selected Metrics for 2024-2027)

• FFOPS and AFFOPS: Vary by year, with 2025E at $0.89 per share for both FFO and AFFO.
• NOI Growth: Dropped significantly in 2024 (-16.2% year-over-year), with positive growth expected in subsequent years.
• P/FFO Ratio: Around 10.0-11.3x historically, supporting the valuation.
• EBITDA Including Associates: Fluctuates but aligns with projections for stable growth post-recovery.

Valuation

• Target Price Basis: Based on an 11.5-12x multiple applied to 2025E EBITDA estimates.
• Positive Factors: Premium due to balance sheet strength and anticipated capital investments driving growth.

Risks

• Primary Risks: Economic downturns, travel-related security threats, pandemic risks, and REIT rules limiting retained earnings.
• Positive Catalysts: Stronger-than-expected business travel recovery and private market cap compression could boost performance, while broader market risks could lead to underperformance.