2025-06-13-花旗集团-英国经济与利率_货币政策委员会（MPC）会提供新指引吗_13页_204kb

报告摘要

Key Expectation: The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to leave interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive month, with a 7-2 vote against a cut. Citi anticipates this outcome despite mixed data, as no significant shift in policy guidance is expected shortly.
Guidance Nuance: The "gradual and careful" approach remains central. While some dovish data (e.g., inflation in line with forecasts after ONS revisions) may temper hawkish instincts, the debate at the MPC persists due to concerns over economic volatility and two-sided risks. Talks of a recalibration toward a more neutral stance may occur if hawkish bias recedes.

Inflation: Consumer inflation rose to 3.8% year-on-year, aligning with Bank of England forecasts after ONS adjustments for vehicle tax data. However, core inflation and expectations show mixed signals, with services inflation overshooting but overall consumer expectations unchanged.
GDP Growth: Q1 GDP grew by 0.7% quarter-on-quarter, stronger than expected, but linked to tariff front-loading. April data showed a contraction, suggesting a potential reversal. Services data weakened more than forecast.
Labor Market: Employment growth slowed, wages moderated, and private sector payrolls fell, indicating underlying weaknesses.
Fiscal Outlook: UK government borrowing exceeded forecasts, hinting at a contractionary Autumn Budget with potential tax hikes, which may influence future MPC decisions.

Fiscal Challenges: The government's fiscal deficit necessitates tighter fiscal policies, including possible tax packages, which could delay or alter MPC actions next year.
Potential Shift in 2026: A longer easing cycle is anticipated due to these fiscal challenges and ongoing inflation, with steepening of the yield curve expected in the longer term.

Easing Cycle: Citi positions for gradual, longer-term cuts starting in 2026, outweighing near-term data risks. They advise playing for potential deeper cuts in 2026 amidst low event density.
Market Effects: BoE caution allows data accumulation, and potential spillovers from Fed policies may support cut premiums. The baseline expectation is minimal front-end steepening, but curve dynamics are influenced by supply issues in gilt yields.