2022-11-23-莱坊-Australian_Residential_Market_Update_November_2022_2页_1mb

Australian Residential Market Update Summary (November 2022)

Core Content

The Australian residential market in November 2022 was shaped by a combination of economic factors and policy changes, particularly in New South Wales (NSW) and Victoria. The focus was on inflation control, housing affordability, and the impact of the global economic slowdown.

Key Economic Indicators

• Cash Rate Target: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised the cash rate by 25 bps for the second consecutive month, bringing it to 2.85%. This marks the seventh consecutive rate hike, the highest level since April 2013.
• Inflation Target: The RBA aims to bring inflation back to the 2–3% target range by balancing demand and supply in the economy.
• Economic Outlook: Economic growth is expected to moderate in 2023 due to slowing global growth, reduced household spending on services, and lower consumer sentiment resulting from house price declines.
• Capital Values:
  • Month-over-Month (MoM): -1.2%
  • Quarter-over-Quarter (QoQ): -4.1%
  • Year-over-Year (YoY): -0.9%

Policy Changes in NSW

• New Tax System for First Home Buyers: The NSW government introduced the Property Tax (First Home Buyer Choice) Bill 2022, allowing first home buyers to opt for an annual property tax instead of stamp duty.
• Eligibility: The tax option applies to properties valued up to $1.5 million, expanding support for a broader group of first home buyers.
• Existing Concessions: Stamp duty concessions for first home buyers remain for properties up to $800,000.
• Impact: These measures are estimated to support 97% of first home buyers, or about 57,000 people per year.
• No Impact on Subsequent Buyers: The property tax will only apply to first home buyers who choose it, not to subsequent purchasers.

Victorian State Election

• Election Date: The Victorian State Election is scheduled for 26 November 2022.
• Caretaker Government: The current Labor Government, led by Premier Daniel Andrews, is in a caretaker role.
• Main Contest: The election will focus on regional and outer suburban areas, as the Green and Independent parties gain traction in urban centers.
• Key Issues: Major parties are highlighting health, housing affordability, cost of living, infrastructure, and economic security in the context of global economic challenges.

Key Announcements by Major Parties

Labor Party

• Level Crossings Removal: Aims to remove 110 level crossings by 2030.
• Vehicle Subsidies for Apprentices: Construction apprentices, including those in bricklaying, carpentry, and plumbing, will be eligible for fully subsidised vehicle registrations.
• Neighbourhood Batteries: Plans to install 100 neighbourhood batteries to support 25,000 households with battery storage.

Liberal-National Coalition

• Stamp Duty Reduction: Pledges to cut stamp duty for first home buyers on properties up to $1 million in 2023.
• Housing Development: Aims to make 150,000 new housing lots available in Melbourne and regional Victoria over the next two years.
• Infrastructure Projects:
  • Expanding bus routes in Melbourne’s outer suburbs and regional areas.
  • Building five new schools in Melbourne’s western suburbs.
  • Funding stage one of a new freeway bypass around Shepparton with federal assistance.

Contact Information

• Residential Research: Michelle Ciesielski

  • Email: michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
  • Phone: +612 9036 6659

• Media Enquiries: Vanessa De Groot

  • Email: vanessa.degroot@au.knightfrank.com
  • Phone: +614 1046 0211

• Research Reports: Available at knightfrank.com/research

Disclaimer

Knight Frank Research provides strategic advice and forecasts to a wide range of clients. This report is for general information only and should not be relied upon. No liability is accepted for any loss or damage arising from its use. Reproduction is not permitted without prior written approval.