2023-09-25-莱坊-UK_Residential_Market_Update_September_2023_2页_444kb

UK Residential Market Update Summary: August 2023

Market Performance Overview

August 2023 marked a slower-than-usual month in the UK housing market, characterized by declining buyer activity and sales volume. Enquiries and agreements saw reductions, with a 19% year-on-year drop in buyer enquiries and sales activities weakening further, reflecting ongoing pressures from higher borrowing costs.

Key Data Points

• Sales and Transactions: New buyer enquiries and agreed sales declined, with July 2023 property transactions falling 16% year-on-year to 86,190 according to HMRC data.
• RICS Survey: Sales activity net balance dropped to -47%, the weakest since early pandemic phases, indicating market contraction. Future house price expectations improved modestly, climbing to a positive stance index of 57%^ up^.
• House Price Trends: Prices fell annually by 5.3% (Nationwide) and 4.6% (Halifax) compared to pre-pandemic highs, signaling a cooling market despite some recovery hopes.
• Inventory and Demand: Supply continued outpacing demand in key sectors, with mortgage approvals down 9.5% monthly to 49,400 in July.

Rental Market Insights

The private rental market saw higher demand, with tenant prices rising 5.5% year-on-year, while landlord instructions fell. High supply-demand gaps were noted, particularly outside London, with urban indices showing declines.

Regional Market Details

• London: Prime Central London (PCL) prices decreased slightly by 1.4% annually, but lettings growth stood at 12.4%, potentially offsetting some market strain. Prime Outer London saw minor declines.
• Country Market: Overall sales volume shrank, with indices like the Prime Country House Index dropping by -4.1% annually.

Future Outlook

Sentiments suggest tentative recovery, with IHS Markit surveys indicating rising confidence for end-of-2023. Factors include potential interest rate stabilizations and renewal of student and economic flows abroad.