2023-11-16-莱坊-UK_Residential_Market_Update_November_2023_2页_297kb

November 2023 sees UK house prices reverse decline, up 0.9 month-on-month (YoY -3.3%), though overall market activity remains subdued. Widespread reports indicate cautious buyer/seller behavior, muted supply, price correction.

Key points:

1. September 2023:
   • Average UK house price rose 1.1% (YoY -3.2%).
   • Sales fell 17% YoY.
   • Mortgage approvals reached their lowest monthly total since the mini-Budget fallout (43.3k), below the pre-pandemic average.
2. Bank of England (BoE): Maintained interest rates at 5.25% due to minimal GDP projection for next year and weak Q3 data. Rates are seen as potentially having peaked, but relief for stretched borrowers is unpredictable. BoE aims to combat inflation by keeping rates high.
3. Wage Growth: Continued significant growth (7.7% YoY over September).
4. Market Sentiment:
   • UK GDP outlook is flat.
   • Market sentiment is weak, influenced by central bank decisions, approaching election, and inflation uncertainty.
   • Feeling of normality may be returning, but low sales volumes persist.
5. Prime London:
   • Sales in prime central and outer London fell year-to-date (-1.6% YoY).
   • Lettings volumes (1.6%-9.6% YoY) outperformed previous years but are still not consistently rising.
   • London's resilience is limited by inflation concerns and economic factors.
6. Country/Scottish Markets: Primarily declining, with average sales falling in both prime country and prime Scottish indices year-to-date, mirroring overall subdued activity.
7. Uncertainty Remains: Economic factors, including future fiscal policy, continue to impact the market.