2023-03-28-莱坊-UK_Residential_Market_Update_March_2023_2页_376kb

UK Residential Market Update - March 2023

The outlook for the UK residential market has brightened as activity rebounds from the slowdown caused by the mini-Budget. While evidence of a market correction is emerging, backed by Halifax data showing a monthly price increase of 1.1%, many experts view this adjustment as potentially reversible, possibly leading to an overall annual decline in house prices.

Key indicators suggest market activity and sentiment are improving. A rise in new buyer enquiries (+5 percentage points) and net new listings (+3 percentage points) are noted. Activity levels and potential sales volumes have increased since the market pause at the end of 2022, with mortgage approvals now above levels seen during the recent slowdown, although the overall recovery remains fragile.

However, the path to recovery depends on higher supply translating through to pricing, alongside the lingering impact of reduced buyer spending power. Survey data (RICS and Household Sentiment) indicates while sentiment is moving towards neutral or slightly positive, overall market confidence remains weak.

Activity varies significantly within the UK. Prime London sales prices remained flat for the quarter, while prime outer London saw a slight price increase. Prime regional markets maintained momentum. Broader country house prices experienced declines. Leading indicators, such as market valuation appraisals (+19.8%), are showing positive trends.

Finally, concerns about potential recession and fragile consumer confidence add caution, suggesting challenges ahead despite the current improvement in market activity and sentiment. A balanced view shows signs of a gradual slowdown and brightness in sentiment offset by underlying risks.