2017年-数据局_德勤：亚太区经济展望2016年第四季_36页_1mb

Asia Pacific Economic Forecast Summary

Core Content

This document provides an economic forecast for several countries in the Asia Pacific region, focusing on Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam. It outlines the current economic conditions, growth trends, and challenges faced by these economies, along with potential policy responses and future outlooks.

Main Points

Malaysia

• Economic Growth: Moderating, with Q2 GDP growth at 4.0%, the slowest since 2009.
• Domestic Demand: Resilient, growing 4.9% YoY, driven by private consumption (6.4%) and strong investment revival (6.1% in Q2).
• External Sector: Net exports and agricultural sector continue to drag growth. The current account surplus is at a record low.
• Fiscal Challenges: Rising fiscal deficit due to increased government spending and the default of 1MDB, which could increase to 3.6%.
• Monetary Policy: BNM cut rates in July, signaling support for growth, but cautious about further easing due to household leverage and capital outflows.
• Household Debt: Increased significantly from 60.4% to 89.9% of GDP between 2008 and 2014, with rising non-performing loans and credit card defaults.

The Philippines

• Economic Performance: Strong Q2 GDP growth of 7.0%, the fastest since 2013.
• Consumer Spending: Continued to grow at 7.3%, supported by low inflation, strong remittances (9.0% of GDP), and low unemployment.
• Tax Reforms: Proposed changes to income tax brackets and potential VAT increase, aimed at boosting tax revenue and supporting growth.
• Fiscal Deficit: Expected to rise to 2.5% of GDP, up from 0.9% in 2015.
• Geopolitical Tensions: President Duterte's strong rhetoric against the US and China could impact international relations and foreign investment.
• Economic Risks: Concerns over the war on drugs and its global implications, along with potential impacts on foreign inflows and the stock market.

Taiwan

• GDP Growth: Rebounded in Q2 2016 after three consecutive quarters of decline, driven by export growth.
• Export Trends: Exports to China, Hong Kong, and Europe increased, aided by a weaker currency and improved competitiveness.
• Monetary Policy: The central bank has cut rates four times since late 2015, with inflation remaining low at 1.0%.
• Economic Outlook: Modest growth is expected in the second half of 2016, with a potential acceleration in 2017.
• Risks: Minimal, due to a modest government budget surplus and a large external surplus (13% of GDP), which provides stability.
• Demographics: A shrinking working-age population and low birth rate could limit growth unless productivity increases.
• Competitiveness: Relies on high-quality human capital and developing service industries to sustain growth.

Vietnam

• Growth Target: Aims to become an upper-middle-income economy by 2035.
• Recent Growth: Slowed to 5.5% in the first half of 2016 from 6.7% in 2015, due to a severe drought and weak industry growth.
• Agricultural Sector: Declined 0.2% in the first half of 2016, with agriculture alone shrinking 0.8%.
• External Factors: China's slowdown, weak commodity prices, and US monetary policy normalization are affecting growth.
• Reforms: The “Doi Moi” reforms initiated in 1986 helped transform Vietnam from a low-income to a lower-middle-income economy.
• Future Challenges: Sluggish reforms, a complex external environment, and a slowdown in growth threaten long-term development.
• Innovation: Requires new reforms and innovative policies to maintain growth and reach its upper-middle-income target.

Key Information

• Malaysia: Faces challenges from external pressures, high household debt, and fiscal risks.
• Philippines: Strong economic performance but risks from geopolitical tensions and the war on drugs.
• Taiwan: Shows signs of recovery, supported by export growth and a stable external position.
• Vietnam: Experiencing a slowdown due to drought and external factors, but has a history of successful reforms.

Conclusion

The Asia Pacific region is marked by varying economic performances and challenges. While some countries like the Philippines and Taiwan show resilience and signs of recovery, others like Malaysia and Vietnam face significant headwinds. The role of policy, especially monetary and fiscal, is critical in navigating these challenges and maintaining growth. Geopolitical tensions and domestic issues such as the war on drugs and demographic changes further complicate the economic outlook for some nations.