2017年-数据局_德勤：亚太区经济展望2017年第一季_30页_1mb

Asia Pacific Economic Forecast Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides an economic outlook for several countries in the Asia-Pacific region, including Australia, Indonesia, and Singapore, focusing on their growth prospects, structural challenges, and policy responses. It highlights the importance of shifting from short-term gains to long-term sustainable growth strategies amid domestic and external risks.

Australia: Shifting Toward Long-Term Growth

Key Growth Drivers in 2016

• Strong economic growth (3.1% YoY) was driven by:
  • Recovery in commodity prices
  • Increased government spending on infrastructure
  • Easy monetary policy by the RBA
  • China's renewed construction stimulus

Medium-Term Concerns

• Domestic Risks:

  • Mining sector investment has declined from 9.0% of GDP in 2012-13 to 4.5% in 2015-16
  • Non-mining sectors lack momentum, with industrial and manufacturing PMI near contractionary territory
  • Stagnant wages (record lows in October 2016) are a drag on household spending and national income growth

• External Risks:

  • Reliance on commodity exports to China makes the economy vulnerable to price fluctuations
  • Increased global liquidity has led to appreciation of the Australian dollar, reducing export competitiveness
  • Trade protectionism and geopolitical uncertainties (e.g., US and UK policy shifts) pose long-term challenges

Policy Implications

• The government may need to focus on long-term plans, especially to boost non-mining sector investment and diversify trade
• The RBA's monetary policy has supported growth but also led to overvaluation of real estate and household leverage

Indonesia: Central Bank on the Move

Monetary Policy Response

• Bank Indonesia (BI) has cut interest rates six times in 2016, bringing the reverse repo rate to 4.75%
• BI is likely to hold rates unchanged until early 2017 due to ongoing market volatility and uncertainty around the Fed's policy

Economic Performance

• GDP growth remained around 5.0% in Q3 2016, below the 7.0% target
• Consumer Contribution:
  • Private consumption continued to be the key growth driver, with household spending rising 5.0%
  • Consumer confidence reached a high since March 2015
• Investment and Exports:
  • Investment growth slowed, with machinery and equipment investment declining by 6.8%
  • Exports, especially oil and gas, contracted for the eighth consecutive quarter
  • Mining showed a small positive growth (0.1%) in Q3, while coal mining remained subdued

Fiscal and Structural Factors

• The government collected $7.5 billion in the first phase of a tax amnesty, helping to reduce the fiscal deficit
• Improved fiscal management and ease of doing business (up 15 positions in World Bank rankings) could improve investor sentiment

Singapore: Plans for a Future Economy Face Challenges

Economic Performance in 2016

• GDP growth slowed to 1.1% YoY in Q3 2016 from 2.1% in Q2
• Services sector contributed negatively to growth, with wholesale and retail trade contracting
• Manufacturing growth was mixed, with electronics and precision engineering showing strong performance but overall growth weak

Future Growth Strategy

• Singapore is focusing on five growth clusters:
  1. Advanced manufacturing
  2. Applied health sciences
  3. Smart and sustainable urban solutions
  4. Logistics and aerospace
  5. Asian and global financial services
• These clusters are more sector-agnostic and emphasize innovation and skill development

Internal Challenges

• Weak Productivity Growth: Productivity gains have been lackluster, with value added per worker declining
• Aging Population: Old-age support ratio fell from 9.0 in 2000 to 5.4 in 2016, increasing the burden on the working-age population
• High Debt Burden: Household debt service ratio is 34.0%, much higher than the US (10.0%)

External Challenges

• Slowing Global Trade: WTO forecasts world trade growth at 1.7% in 2016, slower than GDP growth
• Protectionism Threats: Risks to global value chains and SMEs due to rising trade barriers
• Trade Dependency: Trade as a percentage of GDP has fallen from 440% in 2008 to 326% in 2015

Policy Outlook

• Fiscal Policy: Expansionary in the short to medium term, with planned expenditure up 7.3% YoY in 2016
• Monetary Policy: MAS aims to keep the Singapore dollar from appreciating too much, with potential easing in April 2017
• Interest Rates: Rising US treasury yields and a possible Fed rate hike in December may lead to higher interest rates in Singapore

Key Takeaways

• Australia:

  • Short-term growth is supported by commodity prices and monetary policy, but medium-term risks are high due to weak non-mining investment and reliance on China
  • The government needs to shift focus to long-term strategies for sustainable growth

• Indonesia:

  • BI is likely to pause rate cuts until early 2017 due to global uncertainty
  • GDP growth remains below target, with weak investment and export performance
  • Consumer spending is a key support, but structural issues like low productivity and an aging population remain

• Singapore:

  • Economic growth is slowing, and the services sector is underperforming
  • The future economy strategy is centered on innovation, technology, and skill development
  • External trade risks and internal demographic challenges threaten long-term growth

Conclusion

The Asia-Pacific region faces a mix of domestic and external challenges that may hinder short-term growth and require long-term planning. Australia and Indonesia are grappling with structural weaknesses and external volatility, while Singapore is trying to pivot toward a more innovation-driven economy. All three countries need to balance short-term stimulus with long-term reforms to ensure sustainable economic development.