20141028-新鸿基金融集团-Investment_Daily_Note_11页_1mb

Investment Daily Note Summary - 28 October 2014

Core Content

• Market Overview: The U.S. major indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow slightly up, S&P 500 down, and NASDAQ up. The Hang Seng Index (HSI) fell by 0.7%, and HSCEI by 0.8%. The HSI broke below several moving averages, indicating market uncertainty due to the uncertain launch date of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect (SHSC) scheme.
• Market Turnover: HSI turnover was HK$18.9bn, HSCEI was HK$9.6bn, and Main Board turnover was HK$56.7bn.
• Gold and Oil: Gold prices fell due to a decline in holdings in exchange-traded products (ETPs), while oil prices remained flat.

Key Stocks and ETFs

• DCH Holdings (1828.HK):

  • Last Price: HK$4.40
  • Target: HK$4.95
  • Stop Loss: HK$4.05
  • Reason: High dividend yield (~5%), attractive valuation, and potential rebound with technical indicators suggesting a buy signal.
  • Performance: Revenue rose 16.7% YoY, net profit increased 7.2% YoY. The company is expanding into e-shopping and yacht sales, expected to commence in Q1 2015.

• China Packaging (572):

  • Last Price: HK$0.76
  • Target: HK$0.86
  • Stop Loss: HK$0.69
  • Reason: Bullish candlestick pattern, potential upward trend.

• Besunyen (926):

  • Last Price: HK$0.98
  • Target: HK$1.10
  • Stop Loss: HK$0.89
  • Reason: Expected improvement in results performance.

Upcoming Results Announcements

• 28 October: China Telecom (728.HK), Air China (753.HK), Huaneng Power (902.HK), etc.
• 29 October: China East Air (670.HK), PetroChina (857.HK), CITIC Bank (998.HK), etc.
• 30 October: Sichuan Express (107.HK), China Railway (390.HK), etc.
• 4 November: Johnson Electric (179.HK), etc.
• 5 November: HKEX (388.HK), GIORDANO INT'L (709.HK), etc.

Economic Data and Events

• 28 October:
  • Japan: Retail Sales MoM (Sep) 0.9%, Prior 1.9%
  • U.S.: Durable Goods Orders (Sep) 0.5%, Prior -18.2%
  • U.S.: Consumer Confidence Index (Oct) 87.0, Prior 86.0
  • U.S.: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index (Oct) 10, Prior 14
• 29 October:
  • Japan: Industrial Production MoM (Sep P) 2.2%, Prior -1.9%
  • U.K.: Mortgage Approvals (Sep) 62.0K, Prior 64.2K
  • U.S.: MBA Mortgage Applications (Oct 24) --, Prior 11.6%
• 30 October:
  • U.S.: FOMC Rate Decision (Oct 29) 0.25%, Prior 0.25%
  • U.S.: Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 25) 283K, Prior 283K
  • U.S.: GDP Annualized QoQ (3QA) 3.0%, Prior 4.6%
  • U.S.: Personal Consumption (3QA) 1.9%, Prior 2.5%

Market Valuation and Indices

• HSI:
  • Forward P/E: 10.7
  • Long-term average: 11.9
  • Deviation from average: -10.0%
  • FY1 EPS growth: -5.6%
  • FY2 EPS growth: 8.1%
• HSCEI:
  • Forward P/E: 7.0
  • Long-term average: 9.5
  • Deviation from average: -26.7%
  • FY1 EPS growth: 3.1%
  • FY2 EPS growth: 8.2%
• Shanghai Composite:
  • Forward P/E: 9.2
  • Long-term average: 11.9
  • Deviation from average: -23.0%
  • FY1 EPS growth: 20.2%
  • FY2 EPS growth: 12.5%
• S&P 500:
  • Forward P/E: 16.3
  • Long-term average: 14.3
  • Deviation from average: 14.2%
  • FY1 EPS growth: 7.3%
  • FY2 EPS growth: 9.7%

Major Index Performance

• HSI: Down 0.7% at 23,143
• HSCEI: Down 0.8% at 10,311
• Dow Jones: Up 0.1% at 16,817
• S&P 500: Down 0.2% at 1,961
• NASDAQ: Up 0.0% at 4,485
• DAX: Down 0.9% at 8,902
• CAC 40: Down 0.8% at 4,096
• FTSE 100: Down 0.4% at 6,363
• Nikkei 225: Down 0.2% at 15,388
• Taiwan weighted: Down 0.2% at 8,627
• Shanghai Comp.: Down 0.5% at 2,290
• Shenzhen Comp.: Down 1.2% at 7,829

Technical Analysis Highlights

• DCH Holdings: Technical indicators suggest a possible rebound. The stock is currently in a downtrend, but the Slow Stochastics (STC) may generate buy signals.
• China Packaging (572): Expected to continue its upward trend with a long bullish candlestick pattern.
• Besunyen (926): Likely to rise due to improving results performance.

Market Data

Best Performers (Previous Day)

Worst Performers (Previous Day)

A-H Share Price Gaps

Analysts

• Kenny Wen
• Jason Tsang

Disclosure of Interests

• The views expressed in the report reflect the personal views of the research analysts.
• Analysts are compensated based on the profitability of SHK Investment Services Limited and its affiliates.
• No financial interest in the listed corporations covered in the report.
• No relationship as officers or directors of the listed corporations.

Research Analyst Certification

• The report's views accurately reflect the analysts' personal views.
• Analysts may serve as officers, directors, or advisers for the issuers mentioned in the report.
• SHKF may make a market in, or act as principal or agent for, the securities of the mentioned issuers.