20130916-新鸿基金融集团-Investment_Daily_Note_11页_956kb

Investment Daily Note Summary - 16 September 2013

Core Content Overview

This document provides an investment summary for the Hong Kong and global markets on 16 September 2013, highlighting key stock movements, market indices, economic data, and upcoming events. It also includes technical analysis and analyst recommendations.

Main Market Highlights

Global Indices

• Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA): Rose 75 points to 15,376, up 0.5%.
• S&P 500: Closed at 1,687, up 0.27%.
• Nikkei 225: Up 0.1% at 14,387.
• FTSE 100: Down 0.1% at 6,583.
• DAX: Up 0.2% at 8,509.
• CAC 40: Up 0.2% at 4,114.

Hong Kong Indices

• Hang Seng Index (HSI): Closed at 22,915, down 0.2%.
• HSCEI: Closed at 10,538, down 0.9%.
• Shanghai Composite: Down 0.9% at 2,236.
• Shenzhen Composite: Down 0.3% at 8,687.

Key Stock Movements

Positive Performers

• China East Air (670.HK): Closed at HK$2.71. Target price is HK$3.00 with a stop loss at HK$2.44. Positive factors include eased adverse impacts and potential catalysts from free trade zone development.
• Datang Renew (1798.HK): Up 9.5% due to anti-air pollution measures.
• Beijing Ent Water (371.HK): Soared 8.1% after acquiring water utilities operations.

Negative Performers

• China Shenhua (1088.HK): Slipped 3.3% due to coal consumption regulations.
• China Ship Dev (1138.HK): Down 6.5%.
• CSCL (2866.HK): Down 4.8%.
• Yanzhou Coal (1171.HK): Down 4.4%.
• China Shenhua (1088.HK): Down 3.3%.

Market Sentiment and Events

• Market sentiment was weak as investors stayed cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision.
• The Hang Seng Index faced resistance at 23,100 and failed to refill the down-gap.
• U.S. retail sales rose 0.2% month-over-month, and the University of Michigan confidence index fell to 76.8, below estimates.
• U.S. economic data suggested a small-scale QE-tapering, easing market concerns.
• Syria tensions eased, leading to a slight drop in NYMEX crude oil and a rise in gold futures.

Analyst Recommendations

China East Air (670.HK)

• Target: HK$3.00
• Stop Loss: HK$2.44
• Reason: Eased adverse impacts, potential one-off gain from Cathay Life stake disposal, and improved Japan routes expected in 2H13.

Air China (753.HK)

• Target: HK$5.90
• Stop Loss: HK$5.00
• Reason: Strong interim results, expected rebound in passenger and cargo volumes, and consolidation after hitting target price.

Upcoming Economic Data and Events

• China: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) YoY data for August.
• U.S.: Empire Manufacturing Index, Industrial Production MoM, Capacity Utilization, CPI YoY and MoM, Total Net TIC Flows, Net Long-term TIC Flows.
• Euro Zone: CPI YoY and MoM.
• UK: Bank of England Minutes.
• U.S.: FOMC Rate Decision (18 September), MBA Mortgage Applications, Housing Starts, Building Permits.
• Euro Zone: Consumer Confidence (Advance).

Market Valuation and Earnings Growth

Market Turnover and ETF Performance

Hong Kong Market Turnover

• HSI: HK$21.6bn, up 2.3%.
• HSCCI: HK$5.2bn, down 10.4%.
• HSCEI: HK$13.7bn, down 7.5%.
• Main Board: HK$57.4bn, down 8.2%.

Major ETF Performance

• CSOP A50 (2822.HK): Closed at 10.12, down 0.6%.
• ChinaAMC CSI 300 (3188.HK): Closed at 31.2, down 0.5%.
• SPDR Gold Trust (2840.HK): Closed at 985, down 2.0%.
• Value Gold ETF (3081.HK): Closed at 32.2, down 2.4%.
• Value Japan ETF (3084.HK): Closed at 12.62, up 0.5%.

Market Outlook

• HSI may consolidate in the short term due to technical indicators nearing overbought territory.
• Airlines are expected to benefit from the high season for freight services and the iPhone release.
• Buy calls issued on Chinese airlines, with Air China and ASR Holdings showing positive returns.

Additional Market Insights

• Most Short Sold Stocks include major financial institutions like CCB, Tencent, and Bank of China, with significant short sell volumes.
• Exchange Rates remained stable, with USD/HKD at 7.7543 and EUR/USD at 1.3365.
• Energy and Raw Material Prices showed mixed trends, with gold and copper rising, while crude oil and steel fell slightly.

Analysts and Disclosure

• Analysts: Hannah Li, CAIA; Minnie Li.
• Disclosure: The report reflects personal views of the analysts, and they are compensated based on SHKIS profitability. No financial interests in the listed corporations covered in this report.