20140314-新鸿基金融集团-Investment_Daily_Note_11页_1mb
报告摘要
Investment Daily Note Summary - 14 March 2014
Core Content Overview
This report provides a detailed analysis of the Hong Kong and global financial markets on 14 March 2014, highlighting key stock performances, economic data, and market indicators.
Main Market Movements
- Global Indices: The U.S. major indices fell due to concerns over China's economic growth and the Ukrainian crisis. The Dow declined by 231 points to 16,108, the S&P 500 dropped 21 points to 1,846, and the NASDAQ fell 62 points to 4,260.
- Hong Kong Indices: The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed below 22,000, at 21,756, down 145 points or 0.7%, while the HSCEI closed at 9,322, down 41 points or 0.4%. Market turnover was HK$69.1bn.
- Market Sentiment: The HSI fell below its key support level of 22,000, and the next support level is expected at 21,500. The decline was attributed to weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data, particularly in industrial production and PPI.
Key Stocks and ETFs
| Stock/ETF | Close (HK$) | 1D % Change | 5D % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| FIH Mobile (2038.HK) | 4.50 | N/A | -2.1% |
| Ju Teng (3336.HK) | 6.19 | N/A | -3.2% |
| CSOP A50 (2822.HK) | 8.22 | 0.9% | -2.1% |
| ChinaAMC CSI 300 (3188.HK) | 26.9 | 0.7% | -3.2% |
| E Fund CSI 300 (3100.HK) | 25.05 | 1.0% | -2.1% |
| X iShares FTSE A50 (2823.HK) | 8.15 | 0.5% | -2.9% |
| SPDR Gold Trust (2840.HK) | 1027 | 1.2% | 2.9% |
| Value Gold ETF (3081.HK) | 33.6 | 0.9% | 2.4% |
Company Highlights
FIH Mobile (2038.HK)
- Price: HK$4.50
- Target: HK$5.10
- Stop Loss: HK$4.40
- Positive Factors: Turning to profitability, technical break above small double bottom price trend, strong client relationships with Sony and Xiaomi, and a strategic partnership with BlackBerry.
- Profit Alert: Positive profit alert at the end of 2013, indicating return to profitability for FY13.
Ju Teng (3336.HK)
- Price: HK$6.19
- Target: HK$6.80
- Stop Loss: HK$5.53
- Positive Factors: Expansion into smartphone casings, increased exposure to higher-margin metal casings, and development of composite materials.
- Performance: Surged ~8% since 6 March, with strong momentum along its 20-day MA.
Upcoming Results Announcements
| Company | Stock Code | Profit Forecast (HK$) |
|---|---|---|
| Kerry Log Net | 636.HK | Net profit at HK$1.27bn |
| Tongda Group | 698.HK | Net profit up 15% yoy to HK$346mn |
| China State Con | 3311.HK | Net profit up 28% yoy to HK$2.73bn |
| Truly Int'l | 732.HK | Net profit up 120% yoy to HK$1.57bn |
| HN Renewables | 958.HK | Net profit up 87% yoy to RMB$1.04bn |
| China Coal | 1898.HK | Net profit down 50% yoy to HK$4.44bn |
| Kingsoft | 3888.HK | Net profit up 46% yoy to RMB$630mn |
| HK & China Gas | 3.HK | Net profit down 9% yoy to HK$7.02bn |
| Galaxy Ent | 27.HK | Net profit up 38% yoy to HK$10.18bn |
| JNCEC | 579.HK | Net profit up 40% yoy to RMB$1.28bn |
| Tencent (700.HK) | 700.HK | Net profit up 23% yoy to RMB$15.7bn |
| China Telecom (728.HK) | 728.HK | Net profit up 17% yoy to RMB$17.47bn |
Economic Data and Events
- Friday, 14 Mar:
- Japan: Industrial Production MoM (Jan F) - not available, Prior: 4.0%
- U.S.: PPI Final Demand MoM (Feb) - 0.2%, Prior: 0.2%
- U.S.: University of Michigan Confidence (Mar P) - 82.0%, Prior: 81.6%
- Monday, 17 Mar:
- Eurozone: CPI YoY (Feb F) - not available, Prior: 0.8%
- U.S.: Industrial Production MoM (Feb) - 0.2%, Prior: -0.3%
- Tuesday, 18 Mar:
- China: China February Property Prices (Feb) - not available
- U.S.: CPI MoM (Feb) - 0.1%, Prior: 0.1%
- U.S.: Housing Starts (Feb) - 914K, Prior: 880K
- Wednesday, 19 Mar:
- Japan: All Industry Activity Index MoM (Jan) - not available, Prior: -0.1%
- U.K.: ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths (Jan) - not available, Prior: 7.2%
- Thursday, 20 Mar:
- U.S.: FOMC Rate Decision (Mar 19) - 0.25%, Prior: 0.25%
- U.S.: Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 14) - not available
- U.S.: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort (Mar 16) - not available
- U.S.: Existing Home Sales (Feb) - 4.64M, Prior: 4.62M
Market Valuation and Index Forecasts
| Index | FY13E P/E (X) | Long-term Avg. Fwd. P/E (X) | Deviation from Avg. (%) | FY1 EPS Growth (%) | FY2 EPS Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HSI | 9.8 | 14.1 | -30.1 | 2.8 | 9.5 |
| HSCEI | 6.3 | 13.5 | -53.1 | 10.4 | 10.1 |
| Shanghai Composite | 7.9 | 18.0 | -56.1 | 28.8 | 12.9 |
| S&P 500 | 15.7 | 14.5 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 11.3 |
Market Data Highlights
Best Performers
- Shangdong Weigao: 4.9% 1D change
- Beijing Ent: 3.3% 1D change
- Hutchison: 2.8% 1D change
- Weichai Power: 2.7% 1D change
- CR cement: 2.6% 1D change
Worst Performers
- Dongfeng Group: -6.2% 1D change
- China Overseas: -4.1% 1D change
- China Oilfield: -3.5% 1D change
- China Resources Land: -3.3% 1D change
- China Taiping: -3.3% 1D change
Key Market Indicators
Treasury Yields
- U.S. 2-year: 0.3380%, 5D change: -3.13 bps
- U.S. 10-year: 2.6526%, 5D change: -13.53 bps
- U.S. 30-year: 3.5915%, 5D change: -12.91 bps
- HK 1-month HIBOR: 0.2100%, 5D change: +0.07%
- HK 3-month HIBOR: 0.3757%, 5D change: +0.14%
- SH 1-month SHIBOR: 3.8300%, 5D change: -75.60 bps
- SH 3-month SHIBOR: 5.5000%, 5D change: -0.40%
Exchange Rates
- USD/HKD: 7.7654, 5D change: +0.1%
- EUR/USD: 1.3862, 5D change: -0.1%
- GBP/USD: 1.6619, 5D change: -0.6%
- USD/JPY: 101.82, 5D change: -1.4%
- AUD/USD: 0.9037, 5D change: -0.3%
- NZD/USD: 0.8541, 5D change: +0.9%
- USD/CAD: 1.1079, 5D change: -0.1%
- USD Index: 79.6370, 5D change: -0.1%
Energy and Raw Materials
- Gold (USD/oz): $1,375.40, 5D change: +2.6%
- Silver (USD/oz): $21.30, 5D change: +1.7%
- Aluminum (USD/t): $1,741.00, 5D change: -3.1%
- Copper (USD/t): $6,415.00, 5D change: -9.0%
- Hot Roll Steel (USD/t): $527.50, 5D change: 0.0%
- Cotton (USD/lb): $91.00, 5D change: +0.2%
- Brent (USD/barrel): $108.00, 5D change: -0.5%
- WTI (USD/barrel): $98.20, 5D change: -3.3%
A-Share and H-Share Companies
| Company | H Share Code | Price (HK$) | A Share Code | Price (RMB) | A-Share Premium to H-Share (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shandong Molong | 568 | 2.040 | 002490 | 7.940 | 392.5 |
| Luoyang Glass | 1108 | 1.290 | 600876 | 4.940 | 384.6 |
| NE Electric | 42 | 0.830 | 000585 | 2.310 | 252.2 |
| Nanjing Panda | 553 | 3.610 | 600775 | 8.440 | 195.8 |
| Shanghai Petrochem | 338 | 2.340 | 600688 | 3.600 | 94.7 |
| Truly Int'l | 732 | 4.870 | 600332 | 26.820 | 28.3 |
| Jiangxi Copper | 358 | 12.020 | 600362 | 12.170 | 28.1 |
| Anhui Expressway | 995 | 3.850 | 600012 | 3.870 | 27.2 |
| China Oilfield | 2883 | 18.360 | 601808 | 18.150 | 25.1 |
| BYD Company | 1211 | 53.300 | 002594 | 52.490 | 24.6 |
| PetroChina | 857 | 7.700 | 601857 | 7.580 | 24.6 |
| Maanshan Iron | 323 | 1.620 | 600808 | 1.580 | 23.4 |
| Zoomlion | 1157 | 5.040 | 000157 | 4.870 | 22.3 |
| Huadian Power | 1071 | 3.110 | 600027 | 2.950 | 20.0 |
| CEA | 670 | 2.610 | 600115 | 2.460 | 19.3 |
| China Ship Dev | 1138 | 4.260 | 600026 | 3.890 | 15.5 |
| Hisense Kelon | 921 | 10.680 | 000921 | 9.430 | 11.7 |
| Bank of China | 3988 | 3.110 | 601988 | 2.490 | 1.3 |
| BoComm | 3328 | 4.660 | 601328 | 3.700 | 0.5 |
| ZTE | 763 | 15.620 | 000063 | 12.260 | -0.7 |
| China Railway | 390 | 3.020 | 601390 | 2.350 | -1.5 |
| Guangshen Railway | 525 | 3.260 | 601333 | 2.510 | -2.6 |
| CM Bank | 3968 | 12.620 | 600036 | 9.670 | -3.0 |
| CSR | 1766 | 5.480 | 600115 | 4.180 | -3.5 |
| Sinopec | 386 | 6.530 | 600028 | 4.980 | -3.5 |
| CCB | 939 | 5.040 | 601939 | 3.820 | -4.1 |
| Huaneng Power | 902 | 6.210 | 600011 | 4.700 | -4.2 |
| ABC | 1288 | 3.140 | 601288 | 2.360 | -4.9 |
| Air China | 753 | 4.740 | 601111 | 3.520 | -6.0 |
| ICBC | 1398 | 4.460 | 601398 | 3.270 | -7.2 |
| Tsingtao Brewery | 168 | 58.200 | 600600 | 41.830 | -9.1 |
| Sh Pharma | 2607 | 19.600 | 601607 | 13.770 | -11.1 |
| China Rail Cons | 1186 | 5.650 | 601186 | 3.900 | -12.7 |
| China Shenhua | 1088 | 19.360 | 601088 | 13.180 | -13.9 |
| China Life | 2628 | 20.450 | 601628 | 13.180 | -18.4 |
| Angang Steel | 347 | 4.560 | 000898 | 2.850 | -20.9 |
| Weichai Power | 2338 | 27.000 | 000338 | 16.330 | -23.5 |
| CPIC | 2601 | 25.550 | 601601 | 15.390 | -23.8 |
| Ping An | 2318 | 61.100 | 601318 | 36.740 | -23.9 |
| Jiangsu Expressway | 177 | 9.210 | 600377 | 5.380 | -26.1 |
| Anhui Conch | 914 | 26.750 | 600585 | 14.480 | -31.5 |
Analysts and Disclosure
- Analysts: Hannah Li, CAIA; Jason Tsang
- Disclosure: The views expressed in the report reflect the personal opinions of the analysts. SHKF may have financial interests in the mentioned issuers, including positions in securities, options, futures, or other derivatives.
- Conflicts of Interest: The analysts do not have financial interests in the listed companies covered in the report, nor do they serve as officers or directors of these companies.
- Conflicts Disclosure: Information about conflicts of interest is available at http://www.shkresearch.com/rp/disclosureOfInterests.html
Disclaimer
This report is for informational and discussion purposes only. It does not constitute a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options, or other financial instruments.
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