深度报告-2025-09-08-招银国际-仍有向上空间页_37页_1mb

Market Strategy Analysis

Macroeconomic outlook

• China: Economic growth is expected to decelerate to 4.9% in Q3 and 4.6% in Q4, with persistent deflation. However, liquidity easing policies and anti-“involution” measures may boost risk appetite. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates twice in 2025, supporting market liquidity.
• USA: GDP growth will slow to 1.7% in Q3 and 1.3% in Q4, with inflation potentially rebounding due to higher tariffs and energy prices. The labor market remains weak, while the Fed may lower rates to support the economy.

Sector-specific recommendations:

• Technology: AI-driven demand for servers and endpoints (e.g., smartphones, wearables) remains strong despite slower shipments. Key recommendations include small caps like Xiaomi (1810 HK), AAC Technologies (2018 HK), and foldable iPhone-related suppliers.
• Semiconductors: Policy support and capital expenditure growth are driving chip demand. Leading players like China Brocade (300308 CH) and BYD Electronics (285 HK) are favored.
• Internet & Media: Consumer spending remains cautious, but AI applications in gaming, marketing, and e-commerce are gaining traction. Notable picks include Tencent (700 HK), Alibaba (BABA US), and Kuaishou (1024 HK).
• Consumer Goods: Focus on essential items (e.g., food, beverages) and domestic brands. Recommended stocks: Mengniu (2319 HK), K-weichi (9633 HK).
• Automotive: New energy vehicles (NEVs) are performing well, supported by policies and consumer adoption. Key targets include Li Auto (2015 HK), NIO (9866 HK).
• Real Estate & REITs: Sector stability is supported by policy easing and operational assets. Notable picks: Lutown Group (960 HK), Vanke Service (2935 HK).
• Capital Goods: Construction machinery remains robust, especially in Africa. Top recommendations: Sany Heavy Industry (000035 CH), Zoomlion Heavy Industry (1157 HK).
• Insurance: Equities allocation and AI-driven underwriting are key growth drivers. Recommendations: China Life Insurance (2608 HK), Ping An Insurance (2318 HK).

Key Themes:

• AI-led Growth: Technology and semiconductors are central to future growth, with strong demand for servers, chips, and AI applications.
• Policy Impact: China's anti-“involution” policies and fiscal/monetary easing are expected to boost domestic consumption and stabilize markets.
• Valuation Opportunities: Undervalued stocks in high-growth sectors offer attractive risk-reward profiles.

Disclaimer: Market conditions may change rapidly; investors should conduct thorough due diligence.