20240216-国投证券-专题报告_回归常态化增长的_春节档__12页_1mb

Summary of 2024 Spring Festival Regular Growth Report

Travel Highlights

• National population migration index increased: YOY growth of 45% since 2026 (春运 start), and 231% compared to 2019 levels.
• Transport data: 2026春运 daily flow up 197% YOY and 67% vs. 2019; cumulative flow up 139% YOY and 111% vs. 2019.
• Weather impact limited, with late peak due to New Year's Day.

Consumption Breakdown

• Film industry: Total box office reached 676.6 billion yuan, second in history; tickets sold slightly below 2021 but average price declined.
• Tourism: Strong recovery; APP orders up significantly, with domestic and international travel exceeding pre-pandemic levels; Northern "snow" and Southern "warm" themes popular.
• Real Estate: Market remains cold, with average daily sales area down sharply (-392% YOY);返乡 intentions fell further, with focus on urban upgrades; Some major cities eased purchase restrictions.

Overseas Capital Markets

• Key changes: US inflation concerns raise yields; Dollar strengthens, commodities mixed.
• Global stocks: APAC markets rose strongly, including Japan and China-related indices; US markets weaker amid uncertainty.
• Risks: Potential further inflation and market volatility noted.

This summary captures the main recovery trends across various sectors during the 2024 Spring Festival period. For detailed data, refer to the full report.