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Summary of Hengli Futures Research Institute Styrene Annual Strategy Report

Important Notice: This report is intended for professional investors only and provides analysis based on public data. It does not constitute investment advice; market risks are inherent. The content is summarized from the full report for clarity.

2023 Market Review:

• Styrene experienced significant volatility in 2023, driven by strong and weak realities in supply and demand.
• Key events: Prices peaked in Q1 due to high expectations but fell due to downstream losses and weak demand. Q2 saw a price collapse after the "ethanol blending" logic faded, leading to pure苯 price declines. Q3 rebounded on cost support and seasonal factors, ending strong. Q4 prices weakened amid seasonal demand and inventory pressures, but a rebound occurred late due to better-than-expected inventory levels.
• Overall themes: Supply growth (300万吨/year, year-on-year growth ~17%), macroeconomic shocks, and demand fluctuations in sectors like ABS and PS.

2024 Outlook:

• Despite ongoing supply过剩, new capacity additions are slowing (estimated ~200万吨/year), while downstream demand in ABS and PS is expected to surge (~800万吨 new capacity).
• Key opportunity: Potential "demand lagging supply" could allow for low-buy entries, with price targets set at 6500-9500元/吨.
• Underlying assumptions include higher new capacity in downstream products, supportive demand from expanded ABS and PS sectors, and volatility due to external factors like crude oil and macro risks.

Investment Recommendations and Risk Factors:

• Suggested strategy: Monitor inventory data and focus on opportunities from staggered new projects.
• Primary risks: Macroeconomic policies, crude oil prices, unannounced plant outages, and market sentiment swings.
• Additional notes: The report emphasizes life-cycle analysis for investments and cautions about market uncertainties.

Conclusion:
The report highlights balanced views on styrene, with potential for short-term opportunities amid evolving supply-demand dynamics, but underscores the need for risk management due to market volatility.