2025-05-21-Jefferies-航运日报-集装箱运价维持近期涨幅_运力有限_12页_951kb

Shipping Daily Summary: Container Rates Holding Recent Gains with Capacity Limited

Core Content Overview

This report provides a detailed analysis of current shipping freight rates across various vessel types and trade routes, highlighting recent gains and the impact of limited vessel capacity on market dynamics. It includes data from multiple sources such as the Baltic Exchange, S&P Global Platts, Xeneta, Shanghai Shipping Exchange, Drewry, and Jefferies LLC.

Key Market Trends

Container Freight Rates

• Asia - US West Coast (USWC):
  • Latest: $3,000/FEU
  • Day Ago: $2,900/FEU
  • Change: +3.4%
  • Week Ago: $2,600/FEU
  • Year Ago: $5,100/FEU
  • YTD 2025: $3,500/FEU
  • YTD 2024: $3,900/FEU
• Asia - US East Coast (USEC):
  • Latest: $4,100/FEU
  • Day Ago: $4,000/FEU
  • Change: +2.5%
  • Week Ago: $3,700/FEU
  • Year Ago: $6,200/FEU
  • YTD 2025: $4,600/FEU
  • YTD 2024: $5,400/FEU
• Asia - Europe:
  • Latest: $2,200/FEU
  • Day Ago: $2,200/FEU
  • Change: 0.0%
  • Week Ago: $2,200/FEU
  • Year Ago: $5,200/FEU
  • YTD 2025: $3,100/FEU
  • YTD 2024: $4,200/FEU
• Asia - Med:
  • Latest: $3,400/FEU
  • Day Ago: $3,400/FEU
  • Change: 0.0%
  • Week Ago: $3,300/FEU
  • Year Ago: $6,300/FEU
  • YTD 2025: $4,300/FEU
  • YTD 2024: $5,400/FEU

Key Insight: Container freight rates have seen recent gains, particularly on the Asia-USWC route, driven by increased bookings and tighter vessel availability. The market is showing signs of forward buying ahead of potential tariff changes, and capacity constraints are likely to continue affecting rates.

Crude Tanker Rates

VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier)

• Non-eco: $40,900
• Day Ago: $41,800
• Change: -2.2%
• Week Ago: $42,700
• Year Ago: $50,400
• YTD 2025: $38,800
• YTD 2024: $46,300

Eco: $47,900

• Day Ago: $48,900
• Change: -2.0%
• Week Ago: $49,900
• Year Ago: $58,800
• YTD 2025: $46,100
• YTD 2024: $55,000

Eco + Scrubber: $49,200

• Day Ago: $50,200
• Change: -2.0%
• Week Ago: $51,200
• Year Ago: $60,400
• YTD 2025: $47,100
• YTD 2024: $59,400

Key Insight: Crude tanker rates have shown a decline compared to the previous week and year, but remain relatively stable compared to the prior year. Limited vessel capacity and potential forward buying activity are key factors influencing the market.

Suezmax Crude Tanker Rates

• Non-eco: $35,200
• Day Ago: $36,400
• Change: -3.3%
• Week Ago: $37,800
• Year Ago: $44,100
• YTD 2025: $39,200
• YTD 2024: $44,800

Eco: $38,200

• Day Ago: $39,400
• Change: -3.0%
• Week Ago: $40,800
• Year Ago: $47,600
• YTD 2025: $42,400
• YTD 2024: $48,600

Eco + Scrubber: $38,500

• Day Ago: $39,800
• Change: -3.3%
• Week Ago: $41,100
• Year Ago: $48,800
• YTD 2025: $42,900
• YTD 2024: $50,600

Key Insight: Suezmax crude rates have seen a decline due to tighter capacity and increased demand, with the market indicating a possible rebound in the coming weeks.

Aframax Crude Tanker Rates

• Standard: $33,000
• Day Ago: $33,600
• Change: -1.8%
• Week Ago: $33,000
• Year Ago: $48,100
• YTD 2025: $34,900
• YTD 2024: $47,600

Eco: $35,600

• Day Ago: $36,300
• Change: -1.9%
• Week Ago: $35,700
• Year Ago: $51,300
• YTD 2025: $37,700
• YTD 2024: $51,000

Eco + Scrubber: $36,000

• Day Ago: $36,600
• Change: -1.6%
• Week Ago: $36,000
• Year Ago: $52,200
• YTD 2025: $38,200
• YTD 2024: $52,600

Key Insight: Aframax crude rates are showing a slight decline, but the market remains in a tight capacity environment with load factors at 100%.

Product Tanker Rates

LR2 (Large RORO)

• Non-eco: $34,800
• Day Ago: $34,100
• Change: +2.1%
• Week Ago: $30,800
• Year Ago: $66,200
• YTD 2025: $28,600
• YTD 2024: $60,200

Eco: $38,300

• Day Ago: $37,600
• Change: +1.9%
• Week Ago: $34,300
• Year Ago: $70,500
• YTD 2025: $32,300
• YTD 2024: $64,600

Eco + Scrubber: $39,200

• Day Ago: $38,500
• Change: +1.8%
• Week Ago: $35,300
• Year Ago: $71,800
• YTD 2025: $33,100
• YTD 2024: $67,600

Key Insight: Product tanker rates have increased, indicating strong demand and limited supply, especially on the LR2 route.

Dry Bulk Rates

Capesize

• Non-eco: $15,600
• Day Ago: $15,400
• Change: +1.3%
• Week Ago: $14,700
• Year Ago: $21,400
• YTD 2025: $14,000
• YTD 2024: $23,300

Eco: $19,400

• Day Ago: $19,000
• Change: +2.1%
• Week Ago: $18,400
• Year Ago: $26,500
• YTD 2025: $18,200
• YTD 2024: $28,500

Eco + Scrubber: $20,000

• Day Ago: $19,700
• Change: +1.5%
• Week Ago: $19,100
• Year Ago: $27,600
• YTD 2025: $18,900
• YTD 2024: $31,200

Key Insight: Dry bulk rates have seen modest increases, suggesting a tightening market with limited vessel availability.

LNG & LPG Rates

LNGC (Liquefied Natural Gas Carrier)

• Steam: $4,000
• Day Ago: $4,000
• Change: 0.0%
• Week Ago: $4,000
• Year Ago: $27,000
• YTD 2025: $4,000
• YTD 2024: $28,000

TFDE / DFDE (Tanker Freight Daily Exchange):

• Latest: $15,000
• Day Ago: $14,000
• Change: +7.1%
• Week Ago: $15,000
• Year Ago: $38,000
• YTD 2025: $12,000
• YTD 2024: $43,000

VLGC (Very Large Liquefied Natural Gas Carrier)

• Non-eco: $55,900
• Day Ago: $56,800
• Change: -1.6%
• Week Ago: $52,900
• Year Ago: $66,800
• YTD 2025: $36,600
• YTD 2024: $51,300

Key Insight: LNG and LPG rates show a mix of stability and increase, with notable gains in TFDE/DFDE and VLGC.

Summary of Key Factors Influencing Rates

• China-US Trade Agreement: Has led to increased bookings and a spike in container rates.
• Limited Vessel Capacity: Especially on the Transpacific route, with weekly offered capacity down to 500,000 teu from 570,000 teu in 1Q25.
• Pent-up Demand: Potential for increased demand following quieter activity.
• Forward Buying: Market indications suggest forward buying ahead of tariff uncertainty.
• Load Factors: Near-term vessel load factors are at 100%, indicating strong demand.

Investment Recommendation Overview

Rating	Count	Percent
BUY	2109	60.55%
HOLD	1219	35.00%
UNDERPERFORM	155	4.45%

Key Insight: The majority of ratings are "BUY," indicating a positive outlook for most stocks, though a significant portion are "HOLD" and "UNDERPERFORM," highlighting market volatility and uncertainty.

Important Disclosures

• Conflict of Interest: Jefferies may have a conflict of interest due to its business relationships with companies covered in the report.
• Regulatory Compliance: The report complies with applicable regulations and is intended for professional or institutional investors.
• Ratings and Price Targets: Ratings are based on multiple methodologies including market risk, growth rate, and financial analysis. Price targets are subject to change based on market conditions.

Conclusion

The shipping market is currently experiencing a mix of gains and declines across various vessel types and trade routes, with container rates showing notable increases due to limited capacity and increased demand. Analysts suggest that the recent gains may be driven by forward buying ahead of potential tariff changes, and the market is expected to remain tight in the near term. Investors are advised to consider this report as one of many factors in making their investment decisions.