Capgemini-重新思考大流行后世界的供应链弹性（英文）-2021.4-44页_2mb

Summary of Document: FAST FORWARD - Rethinking Supply Chain Resilience for a Post-COVID-19 World

Core Content

The document discusses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global supply chains and highlights the need for organizations to rethink their strategies to build resilience against future disruptions. It outlines the findings of a survey conducted with 1,000 organizations across four sectors: consumer products, retail, discrete manufacturing, and life sciences. The key themes include the crisis as a turning point for supply chain practices, the need for agility and diversification, and the importance of investment in resilience and sustainability.

Main Points

1. The Impact of the Crisis on Supply Chains

• Major disruptions: Over 80% of organizations reported negative impacts from the crisis, with challenges including material shortages, delayed shipments, and difficulties in adjusting production to fluctuating demand.
• Recovery time: Nearly 70% of organizations took more than three months to recover from supply chain disruptions.
• Sector differences: The life sciences sector had a lower negative impact and showed greater agility, with only 37% taking more than three months to recover, compared to over 80% in other sectors.

2. Shift in Supply Chain Strategies

• Strategic changes: Two-thirds (66%) of organizations believe their supply chain strategy will need to change significantly to adapt to the new normal.
• Reduction in just-in-time (JIT) practices: The use of JIT sourcing and manufacturing is expected to decline from 39% pre-COVID to 29% in the next three years.
• Adaptation of business models: 68% of organizations have adapted their business models due to the crisis, with examples like PepsiCo and Kraft Heinz launching direct-to-consumer initiatives and Munters and Cisco shifting towards service-oriented models.

3. Key Elements of Supply Chain Resilience

The document outlines the following features of a resilient supply chain:

• Visibility: Comprehensive visibility across the entire supply network.
• Agility: The ability to respond quickly to environmental shifts, such as adjusting production levels, reconfiguring logistics, and opening new demand channels.
• Diversification: Diversification of suppliers, production locations, and transportation partners.
• Contingency planning: The ability to anticipate and respond to disruptions through simulations and scenario planning.

4. Investment in Resilience

• Prioritization of resilience: 62% of organizations consider increasing supply chain resilience a key priority post-COVID.
• Simulation as a focus area: 84% of organizations view improving crisis-preparedness using simulations as a post-COVID priority.
• Digital twin usage: Only 16% of organizations use digital twins for regular scenario planning, while 26% use them on an ad-hoc basis.

5. Localization and Regionalization

• Growing interest: 65% of organizations are actively investing in localizing or regionalizing their supplier and manufacturing base.
• Nearshoring trends: The consumer products sector has the highest interest in nearshoring production (72%), while the retail sector has the lowest (58%).
• Customer preference: There is an increase in consumer preference for locally produced goods, which supports the trend towards localization.

6. Supplier Diversification

• Diversification efforts: 68% of organizations are actively diversifying their supplier base, and 62% are diversifying their manufacturing footprint.
• Transportation diversity: 86% of organizations see improving transportation diversity as a key post-COVID priority.

7. Supply Chain Sustainability

• Importance of sustainability: Organizations recognize the need to invest in sustainability initiatives to align with global goals like the Paris Agreement and net-zero emissions.
• Key focus areas: Logistics and manufacturing are the top areas for improving supply chain sustainability.
• Examples: Unilever has committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2039 and is implementing sustainability measures across its supply chain.

8. Supply Chain Agility

• Agility as a priority: 75% of organizations will prioritize agile production facilities post-COVID.
• Subcontracting flexibility: 83% of organizations want to be able to switch between make-or-buy in a flexible manner.
• Current agility levels: Only 27% of organizations believe their supply chains are agile enough to support new business models within a few weeks.

9. Cost Optimization and Vulnerability

• Cost focus: Many organizations have historically optimized for raw material costs, which may leave them vulnerable to future disruptions.
• Cost concerns: Cost remains a dominant concern, and organizations are willing to consider alternatives to JIT manufacturing only if the cost is not significantly higher.

Key Findings

• Low resilience: Only a small minority (less than 4%) of organizations are fully prepared for future disruptions, demonstrating strengths in all seven core aspects of crisis resilience.
• Need for transformation: The pandemic has acted as a stress test, forcing organizations to question long-established supply chain practices and adapt to new realities.
• Resilience gaps: Gaps in agility, cost transparency, and visibility are significant, often due to the perception of supply chains as cost centers rather than strategic assets.

Conclusion

The document emphasizes the urgent need for organizations to enhance supply chain resilience through visibility, agility, diversification, and sustainability. It underscores that while many are recognizing the need for change, the majority have not yet implemented the necessary measures, leaving them vulnerable to future disruptions. The life sciences sector stands out as more resilient due to lower negative impacts and greater agility.