20150629-招商证券_香港_-CMS_HK__Research_Highlights_13页_2mb
报告摘要
A-share Research Highlights Summary (June 29, 2015)
Core Content Overview
This report provides a detailed analysis of stock market performance and investment recommendations, focusing on Industry 4.0 and SOE reform themes. It also includes economic data and company events relevant to the Hong Kong and mainland Chinese markets.
Main Themes
1. Industry 4.0 Company Visits
- Digiwin Software (300378 CH): A software company specializing in manufacturing digitization with over 30 years of ERP software experience.
- ZhongYeDa (002441 CH): The largest electrical product distributor in China, recently acquired gongkong.com to expand online sales channels.
2. SOE Reform Stocks
- The report identifies SOE reform beneficiaries based on reform path, region, and industry. Examples include:
- Shanghai-based companies: Tunnel Engineering (600820 CH), Shanghai Mechanical & Electrical (600835 CH), China Enterprise (600675 CH)
- Anhui-based companies: Hefei Urban Construction (002208 CH), Anhui Xinhua Media (601801 CH), Anhui Wenergy (000543 CH), Anhui Heli (600761 CH)
- Other notable SOE reform stocks: Wuhan Iron & Steel (600005 CH), Fenghua (000636 CH), Guangdong Hongtu (002101 CH), Lonkey (000523 CH)
Key Investment Portfolios
1. SOE Reform Portfolio (0610)
- Tunnel Engineering (600820 CH)
- INESA Electron (600602 CH)
- Bailian (600827 CH)
- SAIC Motor (600104 CH)
- Shenergy (600642 CH)
- Shanghai Mechanical & Electrical (600835 CH)
- China Enterprise (600675 CH)
- Hefei Urban Construction (002208 CH)
- Anhui Xinhua Media (601801 CH)
- An Hui Wenergy (000543 CH)
- Anhui Heli (600761 CH)
- Wuhan Iron & Steel (600005 CH)
- Annada (002136 CH)
- Hefei Department Store (000417 CH)
- Fenghua (000636 CH)
- Guangdong Hongtu (002101 CH)
- Lonkey (000523 CH)
2. Stock Picks (June 10 - June 23)
- Yili (600887 CH)
- Edifier (002351 CH)
- Everyday Network (300295 CH)
- Sierte (002538 CH)
- Yonyou (600588 CH)
- Sanan Optoelectronics (600703 CH)
- SDIC Power (600886 CH)
3. Latest Recommendations
- Fosun Pharmaceutical (600196 CH)
- Yanghe (002304 CH)
- Fuanna (002327 CH)
- Little Swan (000418 CH)
- Sansteel Minguang (002110 CH)
- Noposion (002215 CH)
- Oriental Energy (002221 CH)
- JSTI (300284 CH)
- China Eastern (600115 CH)
- Masterwork (300195 CH)
- Philisense (300287 CH)
- China Spacesat (600118 CH)
- Zhongjin Lingnan (000060 CH)
- Industrial Bank (601166 CH)
Economic Data Highlights
| Country/Region | Date | Event | Prior | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 2015/06/29 | Retail Sales MM Real | 1.70% | 0.20% |
| Euro zone | Economic Sentiment | 103.80 | 103.50 | |
| Germany | CPI Prelim MM | 0.10% | 0.10% | |
| Germany | HICP Prelim MM | 0.10% | 0.10% | |
| U.S. | Pending Homes Index | 112.40 | -- | |
| Euro zone | 2015/06/30 | Inflation, Flash YY | 0.30% | 0.20% |
| Euro zone | Unemployment Rate | 11.10% | 11.10% | |
| U.S. | Chicago PMI | 46.20 | 50.00 | |
| U.S. | Consumer Confidence | 95.40 | 97.30 | |
| U.S. | 2015/07/01 | API weekly crude stocks | -- | -- |
| China | NBS Non-Mfg PMI | 53.20 | -- | |
| China | NBS Manufacturing PMI | 50.20 | -- | |
| Japan | Manufacturing PMI | 50.90 | -- | |
| China | HSBC Mfg PMI Final | 49.20 | -- | |
| Germany | Markit/BME Mfg PMI | 51.10 | 51.90 | |
| Euro zone | Markit Mfg Final PMI | 52.20 | 52.50 | |
| U.S. | ADP National Employment | 200.00k | 205.00k | |
| U.S. | Markit Mfg PMI Final | 54.00 | -- | |
| U.S. | Construction Spending MM | 2.20% | 0.40% | |
| U.S. | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 52.80 | 53.00 | |
| U.S. | EIA Weekly Crude Stocks | -4.93mn | -- | |
| Euro zone | 2015/07/02 | Producer Prices MM | -0.10% | 0.10% |
| U.S. | Non-Farm Payrolls | 280k | 220k | |
| U.S. | Private Payrolls | 262k | 220k | |
| U.S. | Manufacturing Payrolls | 7k | 5k | |
| U.S. | Unemployment Rate | 5.5% | 5.4% | |
| U.S. | Average Earnings MM | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
| U.S. | Durable Goods, R MM | -1.5% | -- | |
| U.S. | Factory Orders MM | -0.4% | 0.2% | |
| China | 2015/07/03 | HSBC Services PMI | 53.5 | -- |
| Germany | Markit Services PMI | 53 | 54.2 |
Company Events (June 29, 2015)
- Multiple companies released financial results and dividend announcements for the year ended March 31, 2015, including:
- Far East Hotels & Entertainment Ltd. (37 HK)
- Hong Kong Food Investment Holdings Ltd. (60 HK)
- Herald Holdings Ltd. (114 HK)
- Moiselle International Holdings Ltd. (130 HK)
- Lippo China Resources Ltd. (156 HK)
- China Investment Development Limited (204 HK)
- Lippo Ltd. (226 HK)
- Hanny Holdings Ltd. (275 HK)
- Wanjia Group Holdings Limited (401 HK)
- Qingdao Holdings International Limited (499 HK)
- Kin Yat Holdings Ltd. (638 HK)
- Ares Asia Limited (645 HK)
- Hongkong Chinese Ltd. (655 HK)
- Sustainable Forest Holdings Ltd. (723 HK)
- FDG Electric Vehicles Limited (729 HK)
- China Properties Investment Holdings Ltd. (736 HK)
- China National Culture Group Ltd. (745 HK)
- Sino Prosper (Group) Holdings Ltd. (766 HK)
- China Water Affairs Group Ltd. (855 HK)
- United Gene High-Tech Group Ltd. (858 HK)
- Extrawell Pharmaceutical Holdings Ltd. (918 HK)
- Takson Holdings Ltd. (922 HK)
- Anxian Yuan China Holdings Ltd. (985 HK)
- CST Mining Group Ltd. (986 HK)
- Karrie International Holdings Ltd. (1050 HK)
- Siberian Mining Group Co. Ltd. (1142 HK)
- FU JI Food and Catering Services Holdings Ltd. (1175 HK)
- Easyknit International Holdings Ltd. (1218 HK)
- China Animation Characters Company Limited (1566 HK)
- China South City Holdings Ltd. (1668 HK)
- Perfect Shape (PRC) Holdings Ltd. (1830 HK)
- Noble Century Investment Holdings Limited (2322 HK)
- Great World Company Holdings Ltd. (8003 HK)
- Sky Forever Supply Chain Management Group Limited (8047 HK)
- Pizu Group Holdings Limited (8053 HK)
- Zhi Cheng Holdings Limited (8130 HK)
- Hua Xia Healthcare Holdings Ltd. (8143 HK)
- Kong Shum Union Property Management (Holding) Ltd. (8181 HK)
Research Coverage Highlights
| Sector | Company | Ticker | Rating | Share Price (Jun. 26) | 12-Month Target Price | % Upside | Market Cap (US$mn) | EPS 2014 | EPS 2015E | EPS 2016E | P/E 2014 | P/E 2015E | P/E 2016E |
|----------------------|------------------------|--------------|--------|----------------------|------------------------|----------|-------------------|---------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|
| Auto & Auto Parts | BAIC Motor | 1958 HK | BUY | HK$9.42 | HK$13.25 | 41 | 9,124 | 0.70 | 0.85 | 1.07 | 10.7 | 8.9 | 7.1 |
| Auto & Auto Parts | Fuyao Glass | 3606 HK | BUY | HK$19.2 | HK$22.7 | 18 | 6,213 | 1.11 | 1.10 | 1.22 | 13.7 | 14.0 | 12.7 |
| Property | China Resources Land | 1109 HK | BUY | HK$24.9 | HK$27.7 | 11 | 18,730 | 2.16 | 2.80 | 3.05 | 11.5 | 8.9 | 8.2 |
| Property | KWG Property | 1813 HK | BUY | HK$6.54 | HK$7.8 | 19 | 2,460 | 1.10 | 1.27 | 1.47 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 4.5 |
| Property | Country Garden | 2007 HK | NEUTRAL| HK$3.38 | HK$3.0 | -11 | 8,873 | 0.61 | 0.61 | 0.78 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 4.3 |
| Property | Agile Property | 3383 HK | BUY | HK$5.2 | HK$7.1 | 37 | 2,628 | 1.42 | 1.35 | 1.38 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.8 |
| Property | Greentown China | 3900 HK | BUY | HK$10.18 | HK$12.0 | 18 | 2,835 | 1.21 | 1.74 | 1.83 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 5.6 |
| Property | China Overseas Land | 688 HK | BUY | HK$27.85 | HK$33.5 | 20 | 29,366 | 2.92 | 3.54 | 4.19 | 9.5 | 7.9 | 6.7 |
| Property | CH OVS G OCEANS | 81 HK | NEUTRAL| HK$3.92 | HK$3.3 | -16 | 1,154 | 0.55 | 0.49 | 0.99 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 4.0 |
| Property | Shimao Property | 813 HK | BUY | HK$15.62 | HK$21.2 | 36 | 6,997 | 2.63 | 2.86 | 3.24 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 4.8 |
| Property | CIFI Holdings | 884 HK | BUY | HK$2.03 | HK$2.6 | 28 | 1,737 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.51 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 4.0 |
| Metals & Mining | China Hongqiao | 1378 HK | BUY | HK$7.34 | HK$8.0 | 9 | 5,572 | 0.98 | 1.23 | 1.57 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 3.8 |
| Metals & Mining | Zhaojin Mining | 1818 HK | NEUTRAL| HK$5.05 | HK$4.7 | -7 | 570 | 0.24 | 0.17 | 0.19 | 16.7 | 23.8 | 21.5 |
| Technology, Media & Telecom | China Telecom | 728 HK | BUY | HK$4.56 | HK$5.4 | 18 | 8,163 | 0.22 | 0.25 | 0.29 | 16.4 | 14.6 | 12.7 |
| Technology, Media & Telecom | China Unicom | 762 HK | NEUTRAL | HK$12.06 | HK$12.6 | 4 | 37,005 | 0.57 | 0.61 | 0.79 | 16.8 | 15.8 | 12.3 |
| Technology, Media & Telecom | China Mobile | 941 HK | BUY | HK$99.8 | HK$105.0 | 5 | 262,370 | 5.34 | 5.89 | 6.35 | 14.8 | 13.6 | 12.7 |
| Technology, Media & Telecom | Wisdom | 1661 HK | BUY | HK$6.73 | HK$9.7 | 44 | 1,397 | 0.17 | 0.20 | 0.23 | 31.4 | 26.9 | 23.6 |
| Technology, Media & Telecom | Kingdee | 268 HK | NEUTRAL | HK$5.01 | HK$1.4 | -72 | 1,648 | 0.08 | 0.10 | N.A. | 49.7 | 40.1 | N.A. |
| Technology, Media & Telecom | Chinasoft | 354 HK | NEUTRAL | HK$4.53 | HK$2.0 | -56 | 1,086 | 0.10 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 35.9 | 27.9 | 22.9 |
| Technology, Media & Telecom | Kingsoft | 3888 HK | BUY | HK$27.15 | HK$34.0 | 25 | 4,137 | 0.63 | 0.48 | 1.16 | 34.2 | 45.3 | 18.9 |
| Technology, Media & Telecom | Boyaa Interactive | 434 HK | BUY | HK$6.24 | HK$11.7 | 88 | 614 | 0.38 | 0.49 | 0.62 | 13.0 | 10.2 | 8.1 |
| Technology, Media & Telecom | SinoMedia | 623 HK | BUY | HK$4.67 | HK$8.07 | 73 | 349 | 0.73 | 0.83 | 0.97 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 3.9 |
| Technology, Media & Telecom | Car Inc | 699 HK | BUY | HK$16.7 | HK$24.11 | 44 | 5,079 | 0.22 | 0.51 | 0.86 | 6.0 | 26.2 | 15.7 |
| Technology, Media & Telecom | Tencent | 700 HK | NEUTRAL | HK$159.9 | HK$152.0 | -5 | 38,462 | 2.63 | 3.37 | 4.26 | 48.2 | 38.0 | 21.5 |
| Technology, Media & Telecom | NetDragon | 777 HK | BUY | HK$32.3 | HK$41.3 | 28 | 2,063 | 0.34 | 0.03 | 0.23 | 75.3 | 861.8 | 113.4 |
| Technology, Media & Telecom | Cheetah Mobile | CMCM US | BUY | US$33.06 | US$43.6 | 32 | 5,743 | 1.80 | -0.06 | 9.28 | 110.7 | N.A. | 21.5 |
| Technology, Media & Telecom | 58.com | WUBA US | BUY | US$66.45 | US$93.0 | 40 | 3,269 | 0.26 | -1.02 | 1.31 | 255.6 | N.A. | 50.7 |
| Hardware Technology | Cowell | 1415 HK | BUY | HK$7.29 | HK$11.08 | 52 | 782 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 13.4 | 10.5 | 7.8 |
| Hardware Technology | AAC Technologies | 2018 HK | NEUTRAL | HK$42.5 | HK$42.67 | 0 | 6,733 | 1.89 | 2.28 | 2.68 | 17.8 | 14.9 | 12.8 |
| Hardware Technology | Coolpad | 2369 HK | SELL | HK$3.02 | HK$1.05 | -65 | 1,673 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 25.2 | 25.2 | 23.2 |
| Hardware Technology | Sunny Optical | 2382 HK | BUY | HK$17.4 | HK$16.21 | -7 | 2,462 | 0.53 | 0.77 | 0.95 | 26.0 | 18.1 | 14.8 |
| Hardware Technology | TCL Comm | 2618 HK | BUY | HK$7.39 | HK$10.42 | 41 | 1,167 | 0.89 | 1.16 | 1.31 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 5.6 |
| Hardware Technology | PAX Global | 327 HK | BUY | HK$11.7 | HK$13.4 | 15 | 1,662 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.62 | 32.5 | 22.9 | 18.9 |
| Hardware Technology | Truly | 732 HK | BUY | HK$3.27 | HK$4.41 | 35 | 1,226 | 0.38 | 0.49 | 0.58 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 5.6 |
| Hardware Technology | Lenovo Group | 992 HK | BUY | HK$10.94 | HK$14.23 | 30 | 15,677 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 17.6 | 14.1 | 11.8 |
Summary
The report emphasizes Industry 4.0 and SOE reform as key investment themes, highlighting specific companies in each sector. It also provides a detailed list of stock picks and investment recommendations for the week of June 29, 2015. Additionally, it includes economic data from various regions, offering insights into market trends and expectations. A list of company events, primarily financial results and dividend announcements, is provided for the same period, showing the focus on corporate earnings and shareholder returns. The research coverage list includes a variety of sectors, with rating, target price, market cap, and EPS information, helping investors assess potential stock performance.
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