20170208-招商证券_香港_-CMS_HK__Research_Highlights_13页_1mb_1mb

报告摘要

Morning Express Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the performance and outlook for several sectors and companies in the Hong Kong and China markets, including the jewellery, automotive, and technology industries, as well as highlights from the A-share research.

Jewellery Sector Highlights

CTF (1929 HK) reported mixed results for its Chinese New Year (CNY) 2017 sales:
- Mainland China (MC) saw a +1% sales growth (SSSG), while HK/Macau experienced a -7% decline.
- The decline in HK/Macau gem-set sales was attributed to a high base effect from the Valentine's Day surge during CNY 2016, which inflated demand for gem-set items.
- Gold products showed strong performance with +13% in HK/Macau and +14% in MC, likely due to the low base effect.
- Gem-set sales in HK/Macau also declined by 17% due to a drop in average selling price (ASP) from reduced sales of large ticket items, although volume growth was positive.
Luk Fook (590 HK) is recommended with a Trading BUY rating, and its SSSG is expected to be better than CTF's due to its lower ticket items and more attractive valuation (14x FY18E P/E vs. 20x for CTF).
The report notes that full updates on both CTF and Luk Fook, including revised estimates and recommendations, are expected to follow.

Geely Automobile (175 HK)

January 2017 sales increased by 71% YoY to 103k units, with outstanding orders of new models reaching nearly 200k units.
Despite a slight decrease from the previous month, the strong sales in a weak season indicate success of new models, which accounted for ~40% of monthly sales.
New SUV models are expected to be launched in 2017, including small SUVs and the Emgrand RS SUV.
The company is projected to maintain monthly sales of ~100k units throughout the year and achieve its sales target of 1 million units.
The report recommends mid/long-term investors to accumulate on dips, with a target price (TP) of HK$13.0 and a BUY rating.

Truly (732 HK)

January 2017 sales reached HK$2,136 million, a +27% YoY increase and -19% MoM decrease.
Strong performance is attributed to orders from major clients like OPPO and Vivo, which are among the top 4 global smartphone brands.
The low base effect from the first half of 2016 also contributed to the sales increase.
Smartphone shipment in China is expected to be more back-end loaded, but component upgrades for camera, display, and fingerprint modules are expected to continue.
The report maintains a BUY rating with a TP of HK$4.86, indicating a potential 42% upside.

A-share Research Highlights

Sany Heavy Industry (600031.SH):
- The company is STRONGLY OVERWEIGHT-A, with a revised TP of RMB8.70-9.00.
- The engineering machinery industry is believed to have bottomed out in 2016, with excavator sales doubling after August 2016.
- Strategic transformation has been successful, with the company now focusing on overseas markets and military equipment.
- Excavators are now the largest profit driver, contributing ~36% of revenue and ~42% of gross profit in 2016.
- The company is expected to return to its historical average net profit level by 2018, with a potential market capitalization increase of 40%-50%.

Market and Economic Data

Stock Market Indices:
- Hang Seng Index: Closed at 23,332, down 0.07%.
- HSCEI: Closed at 9,840, up 1.62%.
- CSI 300: Closed at 3,366, down 0.22%.
- Shanghai Composite Index: Closed at 3,153, down 0.12%.
- TWSE: Closed at 9,555, up 0.17%.
Global Markets:
- Brent Oil: Down 1.32% to $55.15.
- COMEX Gold: Up 0.21% to $1,234.7.
- COMEX Copper: Down 0.6% to $263.55.
- LME Aluminum: Down 0.22% to $1,830.5.
- LME Copper: Down 0.67% to $5,807.0.
- BDI: Down 2.86% to 714.0.
Exchange Rates:
- USD/RMB: Up 0.32% to 6.88.
- USD/HKD: Down 0.01% to 7.76.
- EUR/USD: Down 0.51% to 1.07.
- 1Y RMB NDF: Up 0.43% to 7.1.
- 3M Libor: Up 0.43% to 1.04.
- 3M Shibor: Up 1.68% to 4.02.
- 10Y US T-Note Yield: Down 2.81% to 2.42.

What to Watch

Economic Data:
- US Consumer Credit: Forecasted at $20.00bn for February 8, 2017.
- China Exports: Forecasted for February 10, 2017.
- Japan Machinery Orders: Forecasted for February 9, 2017.
Company Events:
- Lam Soon (Hong Kong) Ltd., NagaCorp Ltd., and others reported results and dividends for Q4 2016.

Research Coverage List

Sector	Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price (Feb 7)	12-Month TP	% Upside	EPS 2016	EPS 2017E	EPS 2018E	P/E 2016	P/E 2017E	P/E 2018E
Auto & Auto Parts	Geely Automobile	175 HK	BUY	HK$9.89	HK$13.0	31	0.26	0.53	0.83	30.5	15.1	7.7
Auto & Auto Parts	Luk Fook Holdings	590 HK	BUY	HK$24.2	HK$25.12	4	2.74	1.63	1.67	8.8	14.9	14.5
Auto & Auto Parts	Sany Heavy	631 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$1.41	HK$1.19	-16	0.01	0.01	0.03	112.9	113.8	N.A.
Auto & Auto Parts	Great Wall Motor	2333 HK	BUY	HK$8.16	HK$11.0	35	0.88	1.06	1.19	7.4	6.2	6.6
Auto & Auto Parts	Fuyao Glass	3606 HK	BUY	HK$23.3	HK$26.0	12	1.09	1.22	1.42	17.1	15.4	11.0
Auto & Auto Parts	China Harmony Auto	3836 HK	BUY	HK$3.87	HK$6.2	60	0.35	0.41	0.54	5.1	4.3	3.3
Auto & Auto Parts	China Aoyuan	3883 HK	BUY	HK$1.77	HK$2.8	58	0.35	0.41	0.54	5.1	4.3	3.3
Auto & Auto Parts	Chow Tai Fook	1929 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$6.81	HK$5.58	-18	0.55	0.29	0.28	12.4	23.5	24.3
Auto & Auto Parts	China Ocean Fishing	8047 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$10.58	HK$6.7	-37	0.21	0.46	0.51	40.3	18.6	10.9
Auto & Auto Parts	China Overseas Land	688 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$22.9	HK$22.5	-2	2.86	3.02	3.28	8.0	7.6	7.0

Key Insights

CTF had a mixed CNY performance, with negative surprises in HK/Macau and positive growth in China.
Geely showed strong sales despite the slack season, indicating success of its new models.
Truly benefited from orders from OPPO and Vivo, with a BUY rating and positive outlook.
Sany Heavy Industry is in a strategic transformation phase, with excavator sales showing significant improvement.
Market valuations are a key focus, with Luk Fook considered more attractive than CTF due to its lower valuation and better sales performance.
A-share companies like Geely and Sany Heavy are showing positive growth and recovery in their respective industries.