2023-06-08-世界银行-干旱与赤字_干旱对经济增长的全球影响（英）_35页_1mb

Droughts and Deficits: Summary of "Droughts and Deficits" by Zaveri et al.

Purpose: Analyzes the global economic impact of droughts, drawing from data 1990–2014 on 82 countries.

Key Findings:

• Economic Impact: Moderate (1 SD below mean) to extreme droughts reduce GDP per capita growth by 0.39–0.85 percentage points. High-income countries show minimal impact (null effect for 1 SD dry shock), while low- and middle-income countries experience reductions of 0.54–0.85 percentage points.
• Heterogeneity: Impact is higher in arid and semi-arid regions and low-/middle-income countries due to limited adaptation capacity. Poorer nations sustain disproportionately higher losses, estimated at 0.8–1% GDP growth per capita annually in disasters, compared to 0.1–0.3% in high-income countries.
• Role of Green Water: Antecedent soil moisture (green water) mitigates drought effects. For instance, prior wet conditions can neutralize growth losses from dry shocks. Forest cover upstream reduces impacts by 45–50% by enhancing water storage and cycle regulation.
• Mechanisms: Effects persist for up to two years post-drought. Dry shocks are more severe in regions with deforestation and less buffered areas, emphasizing the need for sustainable land use.

Policy Implications:

• Countries need proactive drought management, including integrated monitoring systems.
• Investments in early warning systems, infrastructure, institutions, and risk financing are crucial for building resilience.
• Prioritize vulnerable regions with targeted interventions to avoid poverty traps from prolonged droughts.

Summary Data Reference:

For evidence details, refer to the full paper.