世界银行-当雨停了：干旱对突尼斯劳动力市场的影响（英）-2024.5-35页_1mb

严重干旱对突尼斯劳动力市场的影响研究
本报告分析了2000年至2019年期间,突尼斯农业部门受严重干旱冲击的劳动力市场影响。Droughts have increased in frequency and intensity due to climate change, particularly affecting the MENA region, where agriculture is highly vulnerable. Using a staggered difference-in-differences approach with detailed weather and labor force data, the study calculated the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to identify drought shocks at the governorate level.
Results show that severe droughts reduce agricultural employment by 7.4 to 10.6 percentage points compared to untreated areas. In the same period, employment in less climate-sensitive sectors (e.g., manufacturing and construction) increases, partially offsetting the loss. This effect is temporary, fading within two years after the shock. Unemployment rises slightly but recovers in subsequent years.
The impacts are heterogeneous: very young workers (15-25), women, and low-educated workers bear the brunt. This exacerbates existing socio-economic inequalities. The study recommends policies such as investing in water-saving technologies, enhancing formal employment opportunities, strengthening social safety nets, and promoting climate-resilient job reallocation to mitigate these effects and support adaptation to future climate challenges.
政策启示包括推动节水灌溉、改善灌溉基础设施、提升农业技术效率，并加强劳动力市场灵活性，特别是在教育和性别平等领域的支持。这些措施可帮助突尼斯更好地应对气候变化对劳动力市场的冲击。