世界银行-中东和北非地区儿童早期接触干旱的长期影响（英）-2025.8_42页_897kb

Long-Term Effects of Early Childhood Exposure to Droughts in MENA

Key Findings & Summary

1. Main Focus: Examines the long-term impacts of early-life drought exposure on female human capital and socioeconomic outcomes in Egypt, Jordan, and Morocco.
2. Data & Methods: Utilizes pooled cross-section data from 13 rounds of Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and high-resolution weather data (SPEI index) linked geographically.
3. Key Findings:
   • Human Capital: Female respondents exposed to severe drought (SPEI ≤ -1.5 SD) during childhood had lower educational attainment (10% fewer completed years of schooling), higher illiteracy, and shorter adult heights (approx. 1% reduction).
   • Socioeconomic Outcomes: Drought exposure increased early marriage probability by 6 percentage points and continued engagement in agriculture (e.g., self-employment).
   • Policy Implications: Targeted interventions (e.g., cash/food transfers, maternal education programs) are urgent to mitigate long-term vulnerabilities.

Methodology Notes:

• Data: Comprehensive use of georeferenced weather data (SPEI, ERA5-Land reanalysis) for drought and temperature.
• Robustness Checks: Effects primarily driven by rural areas, especially where droughts impact agricultural livelihoods and early marriage practices.

Conclusion: Droughts in early childhood impose lasting human costs, disproportionately affecting rural women in MENA. Immediate policy actions are crucial to address climate vulnerabilities.