2016年-世界发展银行全球_Financial_Sector_Assessment___Russian_Federation_43页_1mb

Financial Sector Assessment of the Russian Federation (July 2016)

Core Content and Key Findings

The Russian Federation underwent a Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) review in March 2016, led by a joint team from the IMF and World Bank. The assessment focused on financial sector risks, supervision quality, safety net arrangements, financial inclusion, the role of the state, insurance development, and payment systems.

Macroeconomic Setting and Outlook

• The Russian economy is in a protracted recession, with real GDP declining by 3.7% in 2015 due to falling oil prices and sanctions.
• The banking system has been affected by the recession, with retail deposit outflows, declining asset prices, and reduced net interest margins.
• The outlook for 2016 is for continued recession, with a projected GDP contraction of 1.5%. Growth is expected to turn positive in 2017, but real income growth will remain slow.
• Macroeconomic buffers, including foreign exchange reserves and a current account surplus, may help limit the impact of risks.

Banking Sector Stability

• The banking system has remained stable due to policy measures such as liquidity provision, capital support, and regulatory forbearance.
• The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) was around 13% in 2015 and fell to 12% in early 2016 as regulatory forbearance was reduced.
• Non-performing loans (NPLs) increased to 8.6% by January 2015, and as of end-February 2016, reached 8.4%.
• Household overdue loans account for 8.9% of total loans, indicating a significant deterioration in loan portfolio quality.
• The banking sector is heavily concentrated, with the largest 20 banks holding 75% of total assets and the top 10 banks accounting for 70% of total lending.
• Sberbank and VTB Group dominate the system, with Sberbank holding over 45% of retail deposits and 24% of corporate deposits.

Financial Sector Oversight and Regulation

• The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) has enhanced its supervisory role, overseeing banking, securities, insurance, and payment systems.
• The CBR has implemented Basel III requirements, including identifying 10 systemically important banks (SIBs) and planning to increase the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) to 70% by October 2015 and to 100% gradually.
• The legal framework for related party lending and asset classification needs strengthening.
• The AML/CFT framework is under review for effective implementation.
• The securities and insurance markets are small but are being modernized in line with international standards.

Macroprudential Policies

• The CBR has made progress in developing a macroprudential framework but faces limitations due to the legal framework.
• Macroprudential tools have been used to address systemic risks, particularly in retail lending.
• Legislative changes are recommended to provide a comprehensive set of macroprudential tools.

Crisis Management and Resolution

• The authorities have taken steps to remove weaker banks from the system, especially focusing on anti-money laundering compliance.
• The use of public funds through the Deposit Insurance Agency (DIA) has raised concerns about moral hazard and cost.
• The CBR should reconsider using its own funds to finance bank resolution and instead use federal budget funds.
• A funding mechanism for recovery costs from temporary public financing is recommended.

Role of the State in the Banking Sector

• State-owned banks (SOBs) continue to play a major role, with government-related banks holding 60% of system assets.
• State ownership has increased since the 1990s, following the 1998 crisis and the 2008 financial crisis.
• The privatization of SOBs is ongoing but could continue under favorable economic conditions.
• The structure of state ownership is complex and dispersed; simplification may be beneficial.

Financial Inclusion

• Financial inclusion is low, especially in rural areas and among lower-income groups.
• The banking sector provides a relatively low level of credit to the economy.
• A tiered banking system and differentiation between payday lending and microfinance could support financial inclusion.
• A comprehensive financial inclusion plan is recommended to guide policy.

Insurance Sector Development

• The insurance sector is still largely rules-based and needs to adopt more transparent, risk-based supervision.
• Actuarial techniques and specialized insurance expertise should be developed within the CBR.
• Liberalizing motor third-party liability (MTPL) tariffs is recommended to promote insurance sector growth.

Payment Systems

• Payment infrastructure is well-developed, but there are areas for improvement.
• The National Settlement Depository (NSD) should test its revised business continuity plan.
• The National Clearing Center (NCC) should introduce intraday variation margin calls.

Key Recommendations