2017年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Togo_First_Review_under_the_Extended_Credit_Facility_71页_2mb

Togo: First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement

Core Content

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the first review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement for Togo on a lapse-of-time basis, approving a disbursement of SDR25.17 million (approximately US$35.61 million), which brings total disbursements under the ECF to SDR50.34 million (approximately US$71.22 million). The ECF arrangement, approved on May 5, 2017, is valued at SDR176.16 million (120 percent of Togo's quota in the IMF).

Main Points

1. Economic Performance and Program Implementation

• Economic Growth: Togo's real GDP growth was 4.8 percent in 2017, slightly below the previous projection due to the negative impact of socio-political tensions on private investment.
• Fiscal Consolidation: The fiscal consolidation under the ECF-supported program has started, with the primary deficit turning from an annual average of about 6 percent of GDP in 2013-16 to a surplus of 1.4 percent of GDP in the first half of 2017.
• Public Debt: Public debt is projected to decline from 81.5 percent of GDP at end-2016 to 77.3 percent of GDP by end-2017.
• Current Account Deficit: The current account deficit remains large but is expected to narrow gradually.
• Inflation: Headline inflation is expected to remain around zero percent at end-2017, with the core inflation rate at 1 percent, helping to anchor inflation expectations.

2. Program Performance

• Quantitative Performance Criteria (QPCs): All QPCs were met by end-June 2017, but two indicative targets were missed.
• Structural Benchmarks: Four out of five structural benchmarks were met, with progress being made on the fifth, particularly regarding the restructuring of the two ailing public banks.
• Revenue and Expenditure: Revenue and grants were met with a margin, while public investment was significantly reduced. The domestic primary balance improved to a surplus of 1.4 percent of GDP, and the overall balance turned to a surplus of 0.7 percent of GDP.

3. Policy Recommendations

• Continue Fiscal Consolidation: The fiscal consolidation initiated in 2017 should be pursued in 2018 to maintain the downward trend in debt while accommodating tighter domestic and external constraints.
• Strengthen Institutions: Institutional capacity needs to be improved, particularly in fiscal management and debt management.
• Restructure Weak Banks: Accelerate the restructuring of weak banks to restore financial stability and prevent the reemergence of risks to the state budget.
• Enhance Structural Reforms: Structural reforms are essential to improve the business climate, enhance revenue collection, and open-up key sectors to private investment.

4. Risks and Challenges

• Political Unrest: Socio-political tensions, the most serious in over a decade, may hinder program implementation and create pressure to slow fiscal consolidation.
• Private Investment: Private investment has not fully compensated for the reduction in public investment, with some hesitations observed.
• Debt Sustainability: If fiscal consolidation has a larger-than-forecasted impact on growth, it could adversely affect debt sustainability.
• External Factors: Potential regional insecurity, weaker-than-expected global growth, and tighter financial conditions may also cloud program implementation.

Key Information

• IMF Disbursement: The first disbursement under the ECF arrangement was SDR25.17 million, with a total of SDR50.34 million disbursed by end-2017.
• Fiscal Adjustments: The government has halted non-orthodox financing of public investment, leading to a reduction in public investment and a decrease in public debt.
• Arrears Management: The government has taken steps to improve revenue collection and verify the arrears stock, aiming to clear it and prevent new accumulation.
• Bank Restructuring: A comprehensive restructuring plan for the two ailing public banks is a priority, with the goal of restoring financial viability and presenting a business plan.
• IMF Support: The IMF has provided technical assistance to help Togo implement these reforms effectively.

Structural Reforms and Economic Outlook

• Productivity and Competitiveness: Structural reforms are crucial to boost productivity, competitiveness, and inclusive growth.
• Private Sector Role: As public investment returns to a sustainable level, the private sector is expected to play an increasing role in driving economic growth.
• Medium-Term Outlook: Growth is projected to remain around 5 percent in 2018, with a gradual increase to 5.4 percent by 2021. Inflation is expected to stay within the WAEMU convergence criteria of 3 percent.
• External Sector: The current account deficit is projected to improve from 9.7 percent of GDP in 2016 to 8.2 percent of GDP at end-2017, while the trade deficit is expected to narrow slightly.

Documents and Contact

• Documents Included: Staff Report, Informational Annex, Letter of Intent, Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, and Technical Memorandum of Understanding.
• Contact: For more information, contact the IMF Publication Services at publications@imf.org or visit http://www.imf.org. Printed copies are available for $18.00.

Conclusion

The first review under the ECF arrangement for Togo was successfully completed, with the IMF approving the disbursement of SDR25.17 million. The program has made progress in fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, but challenges remain, particularly in the context of socio-political tensions and the need for continued institutional strengthening. The IMF has emphasized the importance of maintaining fiscal discipline, improving public financial management, and accelerating the restructuring of weak banks to ensure sustainable economic growth and financial stability.