IMF国际货币组织全球-Togo_Fifth-Review-under-the-Extended-Credit-Facility-Arrangement_86页_1mb

Togo: Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement

Core Content

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the fifth review under Togo's Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement on October 25, 2019, approving a disbursement of SDR 25.17 million (about US$34.6 million). This brings the total disbursements under the ECF arrangement to SDR 151.02 million (about US$207.8 million). The ECF arrangement was initially approved in May 2017 for a three-year period with a total planned disbursement of SDR 176.16 million (about US$242.4 million).

Main Objectives of the Program

• Fiscal Consolidation: Reduce the overall fiscal deficit to ensure long-term debt and external sustainability.
• Inclusive Growth: Refocus policies on targeted social spending and sustainably-financed infrastructure.
• Debt Resolution: Address financial weaknesses in the two public banks and resolve the debt reprofiling operation.
• Structural Reforms: Strengthen tax and customs administration, public expenditure management, and fiscal governance.
• Private Investment: Improve the business environment to boost domestic and foreign private investment.
• Anti-Corruption and Transparency: Fully implement the legal framework on governance and anti-corruption and ensure transparency in public finances.

Key Economic Indicators (2016–2024)

Indicator	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Real GDP	5.6%	4.4%	4.9%	5.3%	5.5%	5.5%	5.5%	5.5%	5.5%
Real GDP per capita	2.9%	1.8%	2.3%	2.7%	2.9%	2.9%	2.9%	2.9%	2.9%
GDP deflator	1.5%	0.9%	1.7%	2.1%	2.8%	2.9%	2.9%	2.9%	2.9%
Consumer price index (average)	0.9%	-0.2%	0.9%	1.4%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%
Total public debt (including SOE debt)	81.4%	76.0%	76.2%	73.1%	68.9%	64.7%	60.8%	57.0%	53.3%
Total public debt (excluding SOE debt)	78.0%	72.7%	73.6%	70.9%	67.1%	63.2%	59.6%	56.0%	52.5%
Overall fiscal deficit (percent of GDP)	-7.2%	-0.3%	-1.8%	-0.4%	1.0%	1.0%	1.0%	1.0%	1.0%

Program Performance

• Performance Criteria: All continuous performance criteria were met, as well as four out of five structural benchmarks.
• Fiscal Deficit: The overall fiscal deficit is projected at 2.9% of GDP in 2019 and 1.9% in 2020.
• Social Spending: The social spending target was missed by 0.7% of GDP in June 2019, with delays attributed to backloading of public investment projects and inadequate budget monitoring systems.
• Privatization Delays: The privatization of the two public banks was delayed, with tenders launched in September 2019.
• Fiscal Consolidation: The fiscal consolidation continued, and the overall primary balance improved to 0.9% of GDP in June 2019.

Risks and Challenges

• Domestic Risks: Socio-political tensions may resurge ahead of the 2020 presidential election, potentially affecting macroeconomic performance.
• Regional Risks: Increased security threats, including terrorism, could hinder investment and tourism, and impede Togo's role as a regional hub.
• Global Risks: Protectionism, retreat from multilateralism, and rising risk premia on global financial markets pose challenges to trade and foreign direct investment (FDI).

Key Policy Discussions

• Fiscal Policy: Continue fiscal consolidation, while accommodating necessary spending and preserving social spending.
• Revenue Administration: Strengthen permanent revenue and reform tax and customs administration.
• Public Financial Management: Implement program-based budgeting and improve budget recording and reporting systems.
• Debt Management: Proceed with debt reprofiling and guarantees, aiming to reduce NPV of public debt.
• Financial Sector: Address public bank weaknesses, complete privatization, and monitor non-performing loans.
• Structural Reforms: Strengthen AML/CFT framework, implement anti-corruption measures, and improve private investment climate.

Conclusion

The IMF staff report concluded that Togo's performance under the ECF arrangement was broadly satisfactory, with economic recovery taking hold and fiscal consolidation progressing. However, corrective actions are required to address underperformance in social spending and delayed privatization of public banks. The program remains on track to achieve its objectives of debt sustainability, inclusive growth, and financial stability.