20150824-大华银行-FX_Insights_11页_943kb

报告摘要

Global Economics & Markets Research Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed analysis of foreign exchange (FX) market trends and forecasts for various currency pairs as of 24 August 2015. It outlines the current market sentiment, key indicators, and outlook for the next 1-3 weeks, focusing on the USD/SGD, EUR/SGD, GBP/SGD, AUD/SGD, JPY/SGD, USD/MYR, USD/THB, USD/CNH, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD pairs.

Key FX Pairs and Outlooks

USD/SGD: 1.4125

Outlook: Bullish
Target: 1.4215
Stop-loss: 1.4020
Support: 1.4100, 1.4020
Resistance: 1.4165, 1.4215

EUR/SGD: 1.6075

Outlook: Bullish
Target: 1.6205, 1.5800
Stop-loss: 1.5820
Support: 1.5940, 1.5820
Resistance: 1.6150, 1.6205

GBP/SGD: 2.2145

Outlook: Bullish
Target: 2.2200
Stop-loss: 2.1920
Support: 2.2070, 2.1920
Resistance: 2.2200, 2.2350

AUD/SGD: 1.0260

Outlook: Neutral
Target: -
Stop-loss: -
Support: 1.0225, 1.0200
Resistance: 1.0300, 1.0350

JPY/SGD: 1.1620

Outlook: Bullish
Target: 1.1845
Stop-loss: 1.1420
Support: 1.1520, 1.1420
Resistance: 1.1720, 1.1845

USD/MYR: 4.2350

Outlook: Bullish
Target: 4.2800, 4.1600
Stop-loss: 4.1200
Support: 4.1850, 4.1200
Resistance: 4.2550, 4.2800

USD/THB: 35.72

Outlook: Bullish
Target: 35.78
Stop-loss: 35.50
Support: 35.57, 35.50
Resistance: 35.78, 36.00

USD/CNH: 6.4520

Outlook: Bullish
Target: 6.6000, 6.3500
Stop-loss: 6.4000
Support: 6.4300, 6.4000
Resistance: 6.5100, 6.5600

EUR/USD: 1.1390

Outlook: Bullish
Target: 1.1465, 1.1365
Stop-loss: 1.1220
Support: 1.1295, 1.1220
Resistance: 1.1465, 1.1535

GBP/USD: 1.5680

Outlook: Neutral
Target: -
Stop-loss: -
Support: 1.5640, 1.5590
Resistance: 1.5720, 1.5790

AUD/USD: 0.7265

Outlook: Neutral
Target: -
Stop-loss: -
Support: 0.7250, 0.7215
Resistance: 0.7320, 0.7400

NZD/USD: 0.6620

Outlook: Neutral
Target: -
Stop-loss: -
Support: 0.6540, 0.6510
Resistance: 0.6670, 0.6740

Market Drivers and Indicators

USD Weakness

The US dollar continues to face weakness due to doubts over the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in September.
The Fed Funds Rate is at 0.0 - 0.25%, with the next FOMC meeting on 17-Sep-15.
The S&P500 and Dow Jones saw significant declines, indicating broader market uncertainty.

JPY Strength

The Japanese Yen is showing strong bullish momentum, with a possible major mid to long-term reversal.
The JPY/SGD pair is expected to move towards 1.1845 next.
The JPY is seen as a safe-haven asset amid global risk aversion.

SGD and Other Currencies

The Singapore Dollar is expected to weaken further, with the USD/SGD target at 1.4215.
The JPY/SGD, EUR/SGD, and GBP/SGD pairs are all showing bullish trends, while AUD/SGD is neutral.
The SGD NEER index dropped to -1.3%, indicating continued weakness against major currencies.

USD/CNH and Chinese Economy

The Chinese Yuan is expected to remain under pressure, with the USD/CNH target at 6.6000.
The PBOC set the reference rate at 6.3862 against the USD, signaling potential for further depreciation.

Economic Indicators

Currency Pair	GDP YoY	CPI YoY	Unemployment	Nonfarm Payroll	Retail Sales	Durable Goods
USD/SGD	+2.8%	-0.3%	+5.3%	+231k	+0.6%	+5.3%
EUR/SGD	+1.8%	-0.3%	-1.7%	+215k	+0.4%	+5.0%
GBP/SGD	+2.5%	-0.3%	+5.3%	+1204k	+0.0%	+4.9%
USD/MYR	+5.6%	+2.5%	-4.4%	+1206k	+0.6%	+4.9%
USD/THB	+3.0%	-1.07%	-4.4%	+43.0b	-8.3%	-1.5%
USD/CNH	+7.0%	+1.4%	-5.4%	+46.54b	-8.1%	-4.8%

Summary of Views Table

FX Pairs	Spot	Outlook	Target	Trailing-stop	Support	Resistance
USD/SGD	1.4125	Bullish	1.4215	1.4020	1.4100, 1.4020	1.4165, 1.4215
EUR/SGD	1.6075	Bullish	1.6205	1.5820	1.5940, 1.5820	1.6150, 1.6205
GBP/SGD	2.2145	Bullish	2.2200	2.1920	2.2070, 2.1920	2.2200, 2.2350
AUD/SGD	1.0260	Neutral	-	-	1.0225, 1.0200	1.0300, 1.0350
JPY/SGD	1.1620	Bullish	1.1845	1.1420	1.1520, 1.1420	1.1720, 1.1845
USD/MYR	4.2350	Bullish	4.2800	4.1200	4.1850, 4.1200	4.2550, 4.2800
USD/THB	35.72	Bullish	35.78	35.50	35.57, 35.50	35.78, 36.00
USD/CNH	6.4520	Bullish	6.6000	6.4000	6.4300, 6.4000	6.5100, 6.5600
EUR/USD	1.1390	Bullish	1.1465	1.1220	1.1295, 1.1220	1.1465, 1.1535
GBP/USD	1.5680	Neutral	-	-	1.5640, 1.5590	1.5720, 1.5790
AUD/USD	0.7265	Neutral	-	-	0.7250, 0.7215	0.7320, 0.7400
NZD/USD	0.6620	Neutral	-	-	0.6540, 0.6510	0.6670, 0.6740

Key Predictions and Forecasts

USD/SGD: Expected to test 1.4215 as a key target, with the stop-loss moved to 1.4020.
EUR/SGD: Likely to extend to 1.6205, with support at 1.5940 and resistance at 1.6150.
GBP/SGD: Targeting 2.2200, with support at 2.2070 and resistance at 2.2350.
JPY/SGD: Targeting 1.1845, with support at 1.1520 and resistance at 1.1720.
USD/CNH: Expected to move towards 6.6000, with support at 6.4300 and resistance at 6.5100.

Disclaimer

This analysis is based on public information and is subject to change. It reflects the views of UOB Group as of the date of the analysis and should not be considered as investment advice.

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