20151005-大华银行-FX_Insights_11页_952kb

Global Economics & Markets Research Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed analysis of the foreign exchange (FX) market as of 05 October 2015, with insights into the performance of several major currency pairs against the Singapore Dollar (SGD). It includes 24-hour and 1-3 weeks views, key indicators, and forecasts for the next few quarters. The analysis highlights the impact of U.S. economic data, central bank policies, and market sentiment on the USD/SGD pair and other currencies.

Main Currency Pairs and Views

USD/SGD

• Current Level: 1.4320
• 24-Hour View: The USD/SGD pair reached the 1.4360 target and is now testing the 1.4400 level. A sharp drop and recovery suggest a short-term top and possible correction. Stop-loss moved to 1.4250.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Bullish, with the next target at 1.4400. The pair is expected to test the 1.4430 resistance. The 1.4360 target was met last Friday.

EUR/SGD

• Current Level: 1.6065
• 24-Hour View: EUR surged to a 5-week high but quickly reversed. A short-term top is likely, with a rebound to 1.6120 and a resistance at 1.6180.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, with choppy trading expected. EUR broke above 1.6150 but failed to sustain the move. The pair is likely to trade within a range of 1.5900 to 1.6240.

GBP/SGD

• Current Level: 2.1750
• 24-Hour View: GBP tested the 2.1830 level but failed to break through. A short-term pullback is expected, with a potential move to 2.1690.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, with a positive undertone. The pair is not ready for a sustained up-move yet. The next target is 2.1950, but it's too early to expect a bullish reversal.

AUD/SGD

• Current Level: 1.0100
• 24-Hour View: The pair tested the 1.0110/15 resistance briefly but quickly reversed. A move to 1.0140 is likely if the support at 1.0055 holds.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Bullish, with the next target at 1.0185. The stop-loss has been moved higher to 0.9980.

JPY/SGD

• Current Level: 1.1935
• 24-Hour View: JPY tested the 1.2060 resistance and then corrected. Sideways trading is expected, with a range of 1.1880 to 1.2010.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Bullish, with the 1.2060 target met. The next level is at 1.2105, a key resistance level. Stop-loss remains at 1.1840.

USD/MYR

• Current Level: 4.4030
• 24-Hour View: The pair is expected to see a correction, with potential support at 4.3500. The outlook remains neutral.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, with the down-move seen as a corrective phase. Further USD strength is anticipated after the correction.

USD/THB

• Current Level: 36.49
• 24-Hour View: The pair exceeded the 36.60 target, but the sharp reversal suggests diminishing USD strength. A move below 36.30 would indicate a short-term top.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Bullish, with the 36.60 target met. The next target is at 36.75, with the stop-loss at 36.30.

USD/CNH

• Current Level: 6.3590
• 24-Hour View: The pair traded in a narrow range, with a drop to 6.3450 and a recovery. The current level is seen as a short-term bottom.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, with consolidation expected. The pair is likely to trade between 6.3300 and 6.3880.

Key Indicators and Data

U.S. Economic Indicators

• Non-farm Payrolls: September's data was below expectations (142k vs. 201k), with a sharp revision in August (136k vs. 173k).
• Fed Funds Rate: 0.0-0.25% (Last change: -0.75% in Dec 08; Next FOMC Meeting: 28-Oct-15).
• GDP QoQ: +0.5% in 1Q15, +0.4% in 2Q15.
• PCE Price Index YoY: +1.3% in Jun, +1.2% in Jul.
• Unemployment Rate: +5.1% in Aug, +5.5% in Jul.
• UOB FX Forecast (USD/SGD): end 4Q15: 1.43, end 1Q16: 1.45, end 2Q16: 1.46, end 3Q16: 1.44.
• UOB Fed Funds Rate Forecast: end 4Q15: 0.50%, end 1Q16: 0.75%, end 2Q16: 1.00%, end 3Q16: 1.25%.

Other Currency Pairs

Summary of Key Levels

Conclusion

The FX market analysis highlights a mixed outlook, with some pairs showing bullish trends and others in consolidation or correction phases. The U.S. economic data and Fed rate expectations are key drivers, with a shift in the Fed's rate hike timeline affecting the USD. Market participants are advised to monitor central bank meetings and economic indicators for further direction.