20150907-大华银行-FX_Insights_11页_906kb
报告摘要
Global Economics & Markets Research Summary
Core Content
This document provides a comprehensive analysis of various foreign exchange (FX) pairs and their outlooks for the upcoming weeks, focusing on key levels, market sentiment, and potential movements. The analysis is based on recent economic data, central bank policies, and market dynamics. It also includes UOB Group's forecasts for FX rates and interest rates across different regions.
Main Views
USD/SGD
- Current Price: 1.4230
- 24-Hour View: The pair is expected to trade within a range of 1.4179 - 1.4251, with any pullback likely to hold above 1.4205/10 for a move to 1.4280.
- 1-3 Weeks View: Bullish, with the next target at 1.4305/10. The pair has started its next leg higher.
- Key Levels: Support at 1.4140, Resistance at 1.4305/10.
- UOB FX Forecast:
- end 3Q15: 1.45
- end 4Q15: 1.43
- end 1Q16: 1.45
- end 2Q16: 1.46
EUR/SGD
- Current Price: 1.5875
- 24-Hour View: Expected to trade choppily between 1.5670 and 1.6000.
- 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, with key support at 1.5670 and resistance at 1.6000.
- UOB FX Forecast:
- end 3Q15: 1.59
- end 4Q15: 1.57
- end 1Q16: 1.55
- end 2Q16: 1.53
GBP/SGD
- Current Price: 2.1635
- 24-Hour View: Sideways trading expected within 2.1560/2.1680.
- 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, with a slow drift lower to test the key support at 2.1420.
- UOB FX Forecast:
- end 3Q15: 2.16
- end 4Q15: 2.14
- end 1Q16: 2.12
- end 2Q16: 2.10
AUD/SGD
- Current Price: 0.9855
- 24-Hour View: Expected to trade within 0.9800 - 0.9880, with further weakness likely.
- 1-3 Weeks View: Bearish, with a target at 0.9800.
- UOB FX Forecast:
- end 3Q15: 0.98
- end 4Q15: 0.97
- end 1Q16: 0.96
- end 2Q16: 0.95
JPY/SGD
- Current Price: 1.1955
- 24-Hour View: Expected to dip to 1.1910 but likely to retest 1.1982/87 before a deeper pull-back.
- 1-3 Weeks View: Bullish, with a short-term pull-back to 1.1870 expected.
- UOB FX Forecast:
- end 3Q15: 1.19
- end 4Q15: 1.18
- end 1Q16: 1.18
- end 2Q16: 1.17
USD/MYR
- Current Price: 4.3000
- 24-Hour View: The bullish trend has resumed with a target at 4.3500.
- 1-3 Weeks View: Bullish, with a target at 4.3500.
- UOB FX Forecast:
- end 3Q15: 4.26
- end 4Q15: 4.20
- end 1Q16: 4.18
- end 2Q16: 4.15
USD/THB
- Current Price: 36.00
- 24-Hour View: Target at 36.00 is met, with focus now on 36.20.
- 1-3 Weeks View: Bullish, with a target at 36.20.
- UOB FX Forecast:
- end 3Q15: 35.5
- end 4Q15: 35.5
- end 1Q16: 35.8
- end 2Q16: 36.0
USD/CNH
- Current Price: 6.4555
- 24-Hour View: Expected to rebound to 6.4660 but capped at 6.4750.
- 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, with choppy trading expected in a broad range.
- UOB FX Forecast:
- end 3Q15: 6.45
- end 4Q15: 6.50
- end 1Q16: 6.55
- end 2Q16: 6.60
EUR/USD
- Current Price: 1.1145
- 24-Hour View: Sideways trading expected between 1.1105 and 1.1205.
- 1-3 Weeks View: Bearish, with a target at 1.1015.
- UOB FX Forecast:
- end 3Q15: 1.09
- end 4Q15: 1.10
- end 1Q16: 1.12
- end 2Q16: 1.12
GBP/USD
- Current Price: 1.5200
- 24-Hour View: Expected to trade between 1.5100 and 1.5250.
- 1-3 Weeks View: Bearish, with a target at 1.5100.
- UOB FX Forecast:
- end 3Q15: 1.60
- end 4Q15: 1.62
- end 1Q16: 1.64
- end 2Q16: 1.67
AUD/USD
- Current Price: 0.6930
- 24-Hour View: Expected to trade between 0.6880 and 0.6980.
- 1-3 Weeks View: Bearish, with a target at 0.6850.
- UOB FX Forecast:
- end 3Q15: 0.71
- end 4Q15: 0.70
- end 1Q16: 0.70
- end 2Q16: 0.70
NZD/USD
- Current Price: 0.6290
- 24-Hour View: Expected to trade between 0.6260 and 0.6335.
- 1-3 Weeks View: Bearish, with a target at 0.6200.
- UOB FX Forecast:
- end 3Q15: 0.66
- end 4Q15: 0.64
- end 1Q16: 0.63
- end 2Q16: 0.62
Key Economic Indicators
USD/SGD
- Fed Funds Rate: 0.0-0.25%
- Next FOMC Meeting: 17-Sep-15
- GDP QoQ: +0.6% in Jul
- Core PCE Price Index YoY: +1.3% in Jun
- Unemployment: +5.3% in Jun
- Nonfarm Payroll: +245k in Jul
- UOB FX Forecast: end 3Q15: 1.45, end 4Q15: 1.43, end 1Q16: 1.45, end 2Q16: 1.46
EUR/SGD
- Next MAS Meeting: Oct 15
- GDP YoY: +1.8% in 2Q15
- CPI YoY: -0.4% in Jul
- NODX: +0.3% in Jul
- UOB FX Forecast: end 3Q15: 1.59, end 4Q15: 1.57, end 1Q16: 1.55, end 2Q16: 1.53
GBP/SGD
- Next BOE Meeting: 10-Sep-15
- GDP YoY: +1.3% in 1Q15, +1.5% in 2Q15
- CPI YoY: +0.0% in Jun, +0.1% in Jul
- UOB FX Forecast: end 3Q15: 2.16, end 4Q15: 2.14, end 1Q16: 2.12, end 2Q16: 2.10
AUD/SGD
- Next RBA Meeting: 15-Sep-15
- GDP YoY: +5.6% in 1Q15, +4.9% in 2Q15
- CPI YoY: +1.3% in 1Q15, +1.5% in 2Q15
- UOB FX Forecast: end 3Q15: 0.98, end 4Q15: 0.97, end 1Q16: 0.96, end 2Q16: 0.95
JPY/SGD
- Next BOJ Meeting: 15-Sep-15
- GDP YoY: +2.8% in 1Q15, +1.8% in 2Q15
- CPI YoY: -0.3% in Jun, -0.4% in Jul
- UOB FX Forecast: end 3Q15: 1.19, end 4Q15: 1.18, end 1Q16: 1.18, end 2Q16: 1.17
USD/MYR
- Overnight Policy Rate: 3.25%
- Next BNM Meeting: 11-Sep-15
- GDP YoY: +5.6% in 1Q15, +4.9% in 2Q15
- CPI YoY: +2.5% in Jun, +3.3% in Jul
- UOB FX Forecast: end 3Q15: 4.26, end 4Q15: 4.20, end 1Q16: 4.18, end 2Q16: 4.15
USD/THB
- 1-Day Repo Rate: 1.50%
- Next BOT Meeting: 16-Sep-15
- GDP YoY: +3.0% in 1Q15, +2.8% in 2Q15
- CPI YoY: -1.05% in Jul, -1.19% in Aug
- UOB FX Forecast: end 3Q15: 35.5, end 4Q15: 35.5, end 1Q16: 35.8, end 2Q16: 36.0
USD/CNH
- Benchmark Deposit Rate: 1.75%
- Benchmark Lending Rate: 4.60%
- Reserve Requirement Ratio: 18.0%
- UOB FX Forecast: end 3Q15: 6.45, end 4Q15: 6.50, end 1Q16: 6.55, end 2Q16: 6.60
Summary of Views (04-Sep-15)
| FX Pairs | Spot | Outlook | Target | Trailing-stop | Support | Resistance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/SGD | 1.4230 | Bullish | 1.4305 | 1.4140 | S1: 1.4140 S2: 1.4110 | R1: 1.4260 R2: 1.4305 |
| EUR/SGD | 1.5875 | Neutral | - | - | S1: 1.5775 S2: 1.5670 | R1: 1.5930 R2: 1.6000 |
| GBP/SGD | 2.1635 | Neutral | - | - | S1: 2.1520 S2: 2.1420 | R1: 2.1710 R2: 2.1830 |
| AUD/SGD | 0.9855 | Bearish | 0.9800 | 0.9980 1.0030 | S1: 0.9800 S2: 0.9750 | R1: 0.9935 R2: 0.9980 |
| JPY/SGD | 1.1955 | Bullish | 1.2040 | 1.1765 | S1: 1.1870 S2: 1.1765 | R1: 1.2040 R2: 1.2105 |
| USD/MYR | 4.3000 | Bullish | 4.3500 | 4.2300 | S1: 4.2600 S2: 4.2300 | R1: 4.3300 R2: 4.3500 |
| USD/THB | 36.00 | Bullish | 36.20 36.00 | 35.80 35.68 | S1: 35.90 S2: 35.80 | R1: 36.20 R2: 36.35 |
| USD/CNH | 6.4555 | Neutral | - | - | S1: 6.4360 S2: 6.4000 | R1: 6.4720 R2: 6.4900 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1145 | Bearish | 1.1015 | 1.1255 | S1: 1.1085 S2: 1.1015 | R1: 1.1205 R2: 1.1255 |
| GBP/USD | 1.5200 | Bearish | 1.5100 1.5170 | 1.5300 1.5400 | S1: 1.5165 S2: 1.5100 | R1: 1.5250 R2: 1.5300 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6930 | Bearish | 0.6850 0.6920 | 0.7015 0.7105 | S1: 0.6890 S2: 0.6850 | R1: 0.6980 R2: 0.7015 |
| NZD/USD | 0.6290 | Bearish | 0.6200 | 0.6410 | S1: 0.6250 S2: 0.6200 | R1: 0.6335 R2: 0.6410 |
| USD/JPY | 119.10 | Neutral | - | - | S1: 118.50 S2: 117.50 | R1: 120.00 R2: 120.70 |
Key Economic Events
- US Employment Report (August): Mixed results, with strong gains but not enough to offset market volatility.
- FOMC Meeting: Scheduled for 17-18 September 2015.
- Singapore Foreign Reserves: August data to be released later today.
- Malaysia: August data on exports and imports due on 23-Sep-15.
- Thailand: Foreign reserves data for the week ending 4 September due on 15-Sep-15.
- China: August foreign reserves, exports, and imports data due on 23-Sep-15.
- Japan: Industrial production and household spending data due on 30-Sep-15.
- Euro Area: German CPI data due on 31-Aug-15, second euro area GDP for 2Q15 on 08-Sep-15.
Disclaimer
This analysis is based on publicly available information and is subject to change. UOB Group does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the data provided. Readers are advised to consider the economic, legal, and tax implications before entering any transaction.
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