2025-05-06-IMF-尼日尔的税收潜力和收入动员_尼日尔（英）_19页_2mb

Tax Potential and Revenue Mobilization in Niger: IMF Analysis Summary

Overview

Niger faces significant challenges in revenue mobilization, with one of the lowest tax-to-GDP ratios in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) region. The tax revenue gap reached 3.4% of GDP in 2022 due to inefficiencies in collecting taxes on goods and services, international trade, and other areas. An econometric analysis using stochastic frontier models indicates that Niger's tax potential is approximately 12.8% of GDP, suggesting substantial untapped revenue.

Key Findings

• Current State: Tax revenue has declined since the military takeover in 2023, with the ratio at 9.4% of GDP in 2022. Weak fiscal revenue is exacerbated by political instability, sanctions, and low informality—a factor negatively correlated with tax effort.
• Tax Gap Analysis: The average tax effort over 2010-2022 was 80.7%, meaning 19.3% of potential revenue was uncollected. Goods, services, and international trade taxes have the largest gaps, with informality (accounting for ~58% of GDP) identified as a major barrier.
• Influencing Factors: Higher tax effort is associated with better institutional quality, greater digitalization in public sector, and lower informality. Countries with median or higher informality have 7 percentage points lower tax effort.

Recommendations for Revenue Mobilization

1. VAT Reforms: Rationalize VAT exemptions (e.g., on petroleum, food, and other items) and increase reduced VAT rates (e.g., from 5% to 10% for specific products to boost short-term revenue). Mitigating measures should protect vulnerable groups to avoid social unrest.
2. Excise and Property Tax Improvements: Expand excise tax bases (e.g., on passenger vehicles) and raise rates where feasible; enhance property tax administration by creating cadasters and using modern valuation technologies.
3. Income Tax Reforms: Address informality barriers to broaden the tax base for personal and corporate income taxes, though statutory rates are adequate if administration is strengthened.
4. Natural Resource Taxation: Optimize resource tax collection, such as royalties and corporate taxes, with technical assistance for mining sectors.
5. Strengthen Tax Administration: Enhance digitalization (e.g., e-filing, VAT e-invoicing), improve taxpayer data accuracy, manage risks, and increase funding for revenue agencies to hire qualified staff.
6. Political Economy Considerations: Implement communication strategies to build stakeholder consensus, ensure fiscal transparency, and protect low-income households through mitigating measures.

Conclusions

Niger has strong potential to increase tax revenue, reducing the gap with potential gains of up to 3.4 percentage points of GDP through systemic reforms. Success depends on evidence-based reforms, sustained political commitment, strengthening institutions and digitization, and community engagement.