2025-05-06-IMF-估算尼日尔的潜在产出_尼日尔（英）_21页_2mb

Potential Growth Estimate: The IMF estimates Niger's potential growth at approximately 6%, driven primarily by labor contributions and investments in physical capital.

• Key drivers: The extractive sector and agro-industrial value chains show growth potential.

Constraints and Risks: Growth is hampered by low productivity, limited diversification, and significant downside risks.

• Main risks: Regional insecurity, climate shocks, and recurrent droughts.
• Downside impact: These risks lead to underutilization of the labor force and economic instability.

Policy Recommendations: To boost growth, policies should focus on human capital development, investment in extractive and agro-industrial sectors, digital technology diffusion, financial inclusion, climate resilience, and transparent resource management.

• Example actions: Enhance education, improve water management, promote digital finance, and implement reform agendas.

Sectoral Overview:

• Agriculture and services dominate the economy, but face inefficiencies.
• Resource sector volatility underscores the need for diversification.

Methodology: Estimates were based on various statistical filters and a production function model, highlighting data limitations and the importance of addressing structural bottlenecks for sustainable growth.