IMF-尼日尔的税收潜力和收入动员_尼日尔（英）-2025.4_19页_2mb

报告摘要

Summary of "Tax Potential and Revenue Mobilization in Niger"

Core Content

This document analyzes the challenges and opportunities for improving tax revenue mobilization in Niger, focusing on the low tax-to-GDP ratio, institutional inefficiencies, and the impact of political and economic factors. It provides an overview of current tax revenue trends, identifies key gaps in tax collection, and offers policy recommendations to enhance revenue generation and administration.

Main Points

A. Motivation and Background

Niger has experienced a sharp decline in total revenue, particularly after the military takeover in July 2023.
Fiscal revenues have remained stagnant over the last decade, fluctuating between 15 and 19 percent of GDP.
Tax revenues, which account for about 60 percent of total fiscal revenues, have been slowly declining, reaching 9.4 percent of GDP in 2022.
The informal sector accounts for about 58 percent of GDP, which significantly affects tax collection.
Tax effort (ratio of actual tax revenue to potential tax revenue) is generally low, with an average of 80.7 percent between 2010 and 2022.

B. Revenue Potential and Tax Gaps

The tax revenue gap in Niger reached 3.4 percent of GDP in 2022, reflecting inefficiencies in tax collection.
The tax gap is primarily driven by gaps in goods and services taxes and international trade taxes.
The tax revenue potential is estimated at 12.8 percent of GDP, suggesting that Niger could collect an additional CFAF 323 billion in 2022 if it matched the efficiency of comparable countries.
Niger is among the countries with the largest tax gaps in the WAEMU region.
A lower level of informality is correlated with a higher tax effort, highlighting the need to reduce informality.

C. Closing Tax Revenue Gaps

VAT Reforms: Niger's VAT collection is below regional averages, with a C-efficiency of 22 percent. Rationalizing VAT exemptions and increasing reduced rates on certain products (e.g., edible oil, sugar) could boost revenue in the short term.
Excise Taxes: Excise tax revenue is low at 0.5 percent of GDP. Expanding the base on passenger vehicles and increasing excise rates could be a significant revenue source.
Income and Wealth Taxes: Personal income tax (PIT) and corporate income tax (CIT) remain below 1 percent of GDP. Improving tax administration and reducing informality could enhance these revenues.
Property Tax: Property tax revenue is minimal, at 0.1 percent of GDP. Accelerating land registration and using modern technology can improve this area.
Natural Resource Taxes: Oil has become the main source of natural resource revenue, and optimizing royalty and tax structures could enhance revenue from this sector.

D. Political Economy of Taxation

Fear of social unrest may hinder structural tax reforms and weaken revenue mobilization efforts.
Mass mobilization events in Africa are often driven by political behavior rather than tax policies.
Key drivers of social unrest include poverty, corruption, weak governance, and security risks.
Improving social acceptability requires a communication strategy, stakeholder consultation, and mitigating the impact on vulnerable groups.
Enhancing transparency and accountability in tax administration is essential for building public trust and support for reforms.

E. Conclusions

Niger has significant potential to increase tax revenue, but this requires sustained efforts in reforming tax policies and improving tax administration.
Successful revenue mobilization experiences in other countries suggest that a comprehensive, multiyear reform strategy is necessary, including improving institutional quality, broadening the tax base, and demonstrating political commitment.
The paper emphasizes the importance of a structured approach to tax reform, combining policy changes with administrative improvements and digitalization.

Key Information

Tax Revenue Gap: 3.4% of GDP in 2022, driven by inefficiencies in VAT, excise, and international trade taxes.
Tax Revenue Potential: 12.8% of GDP, indicating a substantial gap.
Informality: Accounts for 58% of GDP, significantly impacting tax collection.
VAT C-Efficiency: 22% in Niger, much lower than the regional average of 34%.
Excise Tax Revenue: 0.5% of GDP, much lower than WAEMU countries.
Property Tax: 0.1% of GDP, suggesting a need for improved registration and valuation systems.
Natural Resource Revenue: Peaked at 4.3% of GDP in 2013, with oil as the main contributor.
Institutional Quality: Weakness in transparency, accountability, and digitalization affects tax effort.
Political Considerations: Social unrest and public perception are critical factors in the success of tax reforms.