20260331-招银国际-中联重科-000157.SZ-First_take_2025_earnings_+36_in-line_overseas_revenue_surged_60_in_4Q25_5页_856kb

报告摘要

Zoomlion (1157 HK/000157 CH) Summary

Core Content

Zoomlion (1157 HK/000157 CH) reported strong financial results for 2025, with net profit growing by 35.7% YoY to RMB4.779 billion, exceeding initial estimates by 2% and aligning with the Bloomberg consensus. The company's 4Q25 net profit growth was over 1.2x YoY, indicating a significant performance boost in the last quarter. This growth was driven by a 60% YoY increase in overseas revenue, which accounted for ~62% of total revenue in 4Q25. Zoomlion proposed a final dividend of RMB0.2/share, alongside an interim dividend of RMB0.2/share, resulting in a full-year payout ratio of 72%. The company's target price (TP) for both A and H shares remains unchanged at RMB12.0/HK$9.2, based on a 2026E target P/E multiple of 18.6x for A-share and a 30% discount for H-share. The recommendation remains BUY.

Main Points

2025 Financial Highlights:
- Total revenue rose 14.6% YoY to RMB52.107 billion.
- Net profit increased 35.7% YoY to RMB4.779 billion.
- EBIT grew 34.3% YoY to RMB5.813 billion.
- Net profit margin improved from 25.4% in 2024 to 35.7% in 2025.
- Gross margin remained stable at 28.0% in 2025.
- Net gearing increased slightly to 22.7% in 2025.
4Q25 Performance:
- Revenue surged 60% YoY to RMB9.2 billion.
- EBIT rose 169% YoY to RMB1.395 billion.
- After-tax profit increased 78% YoY to RMB922 million.
- Overseas revenue growth outpaced domestic, contributing to the overall increase.
Dividend Policy:
- Final dividend: RMB0.2/share.
- Interim dividend: RMB0.2/share.
- Full-year payout ratio: 72%.
Valuation Metrics:
- P/E ratio (2026E): 11.6x for H-share, 13.2x for A-share.
- P/B ratio (2026E): 1.1x for A-share, 1.0x for H-share.
- Dividend yield (2026E): 5.8% for A-share, 6.5% for H-share.
- ROE (2026E): 9.3% for A-share, 10.1% for H-share.

Key Information

Revenue Breakdown (2025):
- Construction machinery: RMB48.118 billion (+19.2% YoY).
- Concrete machinery: RMB10.057 billion (+25.5% YoY).
- Crane machinery: RMB16.637 billion (+12.5% YoY).
- Earth-moving machinery: RMB9.672 billion (+45.0% YoY).
- Other machinery: RMB5.782 billion (+42.7% YoY).
- Aerial work platform: RMB5.971 billion (-12.6% YoY).
- Agricultural machinery: RMB3.542 billion (-23.8% YoY).
- Financial services and others: RMB447 million (-5.2% YoY).
Growth Trends:
- Revenue growth is expected to remain steady, with 14.3% YoY growth in 2026E and 12.5% YoY growth in 2027E.
- EBITDA margin is projected to increase to 13.1% in 2026E and 13.0% in 2027E.
- Adjusted net profit margin is expected to reach 9.1% in 2026E and 9.1% in 2027E.
Stock Performance:
- 1-month return: -19.1% for HK, -16.3% for CH.
- 3-month return: 11.6% for HK, -2.2% for CH.
- 6-month return: 16.0% for HK, 4.4% for CH.
- Current price: HK$8.5 for HK, RMB8.4 for CH.
Market Cap and Liquidity:
- Market cap: HK$13,383.42 million for HK, RMB59,322.79 million for CH.
- Average 3-month trading volume: HK$114.24 million, RMB835.8 million.
- 52-week high/low: HK$10.46/HK$4.94, RMB10/RMB6.8.
Financial Ratios:
- Current ratio: 1.3x in 2025, expected to be 1.5x in 2026E and 1.3x in 2027E.
- Net debt to equity: 0.2x in 2025, expected to remain stable in 2026E and 2027E.
- Receivable turnover days: 325.0 in 2025, decreasing to 305.0 in 2027E.
- Inventory turnover days: 245.0 in 2025, decreasing to 220.0 in 2027E.
- Payable turnover days: 400.0 in 2025, expected to remain stable.

Conclusion

Zoomlion is performing well, with a strong focus on overseas expansion and diversified product offerings contributing to a significant increase in revenue and net profit. The company's aggressive growth strategy and high dividend yield are key drivers of its appeal. The target price remains unchanged, and the recommendation of BUY is maintained due to the company's solid financial position and positive outlook. Investors are encouraged to conduct independent evaluations and consult with financial advisors before making investment decisions.