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Industry Multiples in Latin America — Q4 2024

Overview

• Date: December 31, 2024
• Report by Kroll provides insight into trading multiples for key industries in Latin America (LATAM) as of December 31, 2024.

Summary Statistics by Sector/Industry Group

Global Economic Context

• GDP Growth: WB forecast growth from 2.2% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025 (up from prior estimates). Drivers include Argentina's economic recovery; Brazil risks slower growth due to restrictive monetary policy & inflation concerns; Mexico faces subdued growth due to fiscal consolidation and tight monetary policy.
• Inflation: In Latin America, inflation generally more persistent than expected. Argentina's inflation peaks near 300% (earlier this year) still above 100% as year-end 2024, impacting economic stability.
• Global Markets: S&P 500 increased by ~23% in 2024; STOXX Europe 600 by ~6%; STOXX LATAM TMI decreased by ~20%.

Country Snapshots

• Argentina: MERVAL increased by 105% (in USD terms); GDP contraction expected (-2.8% in 2024) to +5.0% in 2025; Currency depreciation by 22%.
• Brazil: IBOVESPA decreased by 30% (in USD terms); GDP expected 3.2% growth in 2024 to 2.2% in 2025; Currency depreciation by 22%.
• Chile: IPSA decreased by 8% (in USD terms); GDP expected 2.4% growth in 2024.
• Colombia: MSCI COLCAP increased by 1% (in USD terms); GDP expected 1.7% growth in 2024 to 3.0% in 2025.
• Mexico: S&P BMV IPC decreased by 30% (in USD terms); GDP expected 1.7% growth in 2024 to 1.5% in 2025; Currency depreciation by 19%.
• Peru: S&P BVL increased by 5% (in USD terms); GDP expected 3.1% growth in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025; Currency depreciation by 2%.

Criteria

• Companies included meet criteria: market cap above 10th percentile, free float ≥20%, daily volume ≥0.1% of float.
• Outliers excluded if multiples below 5th percentile or above 95th percentile, or negative.
• Data sourced from Capital IQ (market cap), Bloomberg (financials), and GICS industry classification.

Key Findings

• Multiples Trend: Across all sectors in 2024, EV/Revenues, EV/EBITDA, and P/E decreased except for capital goods and transportation EV/EBITDA which increased.
• Outlier Exclusions: Excluded observations vary by industry, impacting median and percentile calculations.
• Currency/Risk: Adverse trade policy shifts and policy uncertainty noted as risks to Latin American growth influenced by US decisions on tariffs and migration.

Notable Data Points

• Average Latin American market index (STOXX LATAM TMI) performed worse than S&P 500 but better than core Europe indices.
• Inflation continued to impact market performance, particularly affecting countries like Argentina.