【KOLL】2024年第三季度拉丁美洲行业倍数2024_58页_529kb

Industry Multiples in Latin America - Q3 2024 Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of trading multiples for key industries in Latin America (LATAM) as of September 30, 2024, based on publicly traded companies. It includes insights into economic growth trends, currency movements, and sector-specific valuation metrics such as EV/Revenues, EV/EBITDA, P/E, and P/B. The report also includes a lookback of eight quarters for trends in these multiples.

Economic Outlook

• Real Growth Forecast:

  • 2024: Moderately slow at 2.1%, down from 2.2% in 2023.
  • 2025: Expected to increase to 2.5%.

• Country-Specific Growth:

  • Brazil: Expected to grow by 3.0% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025.
  • Mexico: Growth downgraded to 1.5% in 2024 and 1.3% in 2025 due to tight monetary policy and fiscal consolidation.
  • Argentina: Expected to contract by 3.5% in 2024, with a strong recovery anticipated in 2025.
  • Chile: Projected to grow by 2.5% in 2024 and 2.4% in 2025.
  • Colombia: Expected to grow by 1.6% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025.

• Currency Movements:

  • Argentina: Peso depreciated by 55% in 2023 and an additional 17% in the first three quarters of 2024.
  • Brazil: Real depreciated by 11% in the first three quarters of 2024.
  • Mexico: Peso depreciated by 14% in the first three quarters of 2024.
  • Chile: Peso depreciated by 2% in the first three quarters of 2024.
  • Colombia: Peso depreciated by 7% in the first three quarters of 2024.
  • Peru: Sol depreciated by 0.1% in the first three quarters of 2024.

• Market Performance:

  • MERVAL (Argentina): Increased by 47% in the first three quarters of 2024.
  • IBOVESPA (Brazil): Decreased by 12% in the first three quarters of 2024.
  • IPSA (Chile): Decreased by 1% in the first three quarters of 2024.
  • MSCI COLCAP (Colombia): Increased by 2% in the first three quarters of 2024.
  • S&P BMV IPC (Mexico): Decreased by 21% in the first three quarters of 2024.
  • S&P BVL (Peru): Increased by 12% in the first three quarters of 2024.

Industry Multiples Overview

Financials Sector Multiples

Key Trends and Insights

• Communication Services: The median EV/EBITDA multiple decreased to 4.7x in Q3 2024 from 14.0x in Q2, indicating a shift in investor sentiment.
• Consumer Discretionary: The median EV/EBITDA multiple increased to 5.9x, showing a positive trend.
• Consumer Durables and Apparel: The median EV/EBITDA multiple is 7.2x, with a notable range due to outlier companies.
• Consumer Services: The median EV/EBITDA multiple is 4.9x, with higher volatility in P/E and P/B multiples.
• Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail: The median EV/EBITDA multiple is 6.9x, with a wide range in multiples.
• Consumer Staples: The median EV/EBITDA multiple is 7.4x, with a median P/E of 12.5x.
• Consumer Staples Distribution and Retail: The median EV/EBITDA multiple is 8.1x, showing higher valuation.
• Food, Beverage and Tobacco: The median EV/EBITDA multiple is 6.8x, with a relatively stable P/E.
• Energy: The median EV/EBITDA multiple is 4.9x, with a wide range in EV/Revenues.
• Health Care: The median EV/EBITDA multiple is 6.5x, with a median P/E of 12.1x.
• Industrials: The median EV/EBITDA multiple is 6.8x, with a median P/E of 13.0x.
• Capital Goods: The median EV/EBITDA multiple is 6.5x, with a mean of 9.6x.
• Transportation: The median EV/EBITDA multiple is 6.7x, with a mean of 11.7x.
• Information Technology: The median EV/EBITDA multiple is 8.2x, with a mean of 9.6x.
• Materials: The median EV/EBITDA multiple is 5.3x, with a mean of 6.2x.
• Real Estate: The median EV/Revenues multiple is 4.6x, with a median EV/EBITDA of 11.1x.
• Utilities: The median EV/EBITDA multiple is 6.3x, with a mean of 10.9x.

Key Observations

• Outliers: Multiple sectors had outliers excluded from the median calculations, indicating variability in company performance.
• Minimum Participants: Sectors must have at least five companies to be calculated, affecting the reliability of smaller industry groups.
• Market Volatility: The report highlights the importance of monitoring market volatility and currency depreciation, especially in countries like Argentina and Mexico.
• Policy Impact: Economic policies and political changes are expected to significantly influence growth and market performance in the coming year.

Conclusion

This report offers a comprehensive view of the current and projected economic conditions and valuation multiples across key industries in LATAM. It emphasizes the importance of understanding sector-specific trends and the impact of macroeconomic factors on market performance and valuation metrics. Investors and analysts are encouraged to use this data to make informed decisions in the dynamic LATAM market.