英国国家经济和社会研究所-北爱尔兰经济的宏观模型（英）-2025.1_36页_1005kb

North Irish Economy Macro Model Analysis

Report Overview

• Institution: National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), established in 1938.
• Model Purpose: Structural macro-econometric model to analyze economic shocks (e.g., UK monetary policy, trade linkages) and policy impacts on Northern Ireland (NI).
• Key Innovations: Focuses on NI's unique position within the UK and EU, integrating cross-border trade dynamics with Ireland and global economies.

Research Context

• Post-Brexit Challenges: NI’s role in UK fiscal unions yet EU market access requires specialized modeling.
• Economic Disparities: NI underperforms Ireland & UK (lower exports, less multinational investment).
• Model Type: Adapts from NiGEM (UK-wide model), incorporates sub-national flexibility.

Model Structure

graph TD  
A[Households] -->|Supply Labour| B[Firms]  
B -->|Demand Goods| C[Public Sector]  
C -->|Transfers| A  
B -->|Investments| C  
D[Foreign Sector] -->|Exports/Imports| C  

Components:

1. Households: Labour supply, consumption (real disposable income, wealth).
2. Firms: Investment via capital stock, production function (labour, capital, energy).
3. Government: Barnett Formula-funded spending; potential tax devolution scenarios.
4. Foreign Sector: Trade interactions with UK, Ireland, EU, and global markets.

Methodology

• Database: 1997–2021 data compiled via ONS, HM Treasury, NISRA; imputation for missing data.
• Estimation: Error Correction Model (ECM) for short-term dynamics and long-term equilibrium.
• Key Variables: Labour market, public finances, prices, interest rates.

Simulation Results

Shocks Analyzed:

1. UK Monetary Policy Shock (100bp increase):

   • NI output contraction less severe than UK due to reduced interest elasticity.
   • Inflation adjustment slower in NI compared to UK.

2. NI Government Spending Shock (+1%):

   • Boosts output (+0.3%) via multiplier effect; temporary crowding-in on private investment.

3. Irish Exports Shock (+1%):

   • Temporary: NI output +0.15%, all-island output +0.3%.
   • Permanent: NI output +0.12%, reflecting trade spillovers.

Conclusion

• The model demonstrates differential responses to shocks, supporting policy analysis for e.g., fiscal autonomy/negotiations, Brexit-related risks, and cross-border economic integration.