20090930-IEA-Technology_Roadmap_-_Wind_Foldout_2页_1mb

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## Wind Energy Roadmap Summary (IEA)

*   **Objective (2050 Goal):** Achieve approximately **12%** of global electricity generation from wind energy, requiring **ch 2016 GW** of cumulative capacity, generating roughly **6.5 TWh** annually by 2050, and avoiding **~3 Gt CO2 equivalent emissions** compared to a reference scenario, accounting for **~9%** of the total CO2 reduction in the power sector (compared to ~1.5 Gt from offshore).
*   **Investment Needed:** Achieve these goals through USD **3.2 trillion** total investment, requiring an average installation of **47 GW/year** (up from ~11 GW average in the reference scenario) for approximately four decades, equivalent to **USD 81 billion per year**, making market-based mechanisms critical for investment.
*   **Growth Period:** The period from **2010 to 2020** is identified as critical for setting long-term targets, implementing supportive policies, accelerating deployment, and fostering necessary infrastructure.
*   **Key Focus Areas:**
    *   **Flexibility:** Enhancing power system flexibility through improved forecasting, market design, demand response, smart grids, storage, and interconnection is essential to achieve high wind power penetrations.
    *   **Transmission:** Coordinated transmission planning, investment incentives, equitable grid access, and stronger interconnection are vital to connect resource-rich areas and facilitate deployment, especially for growing offshore capacity.
    *   **Cost Reduction:** Driving down costs through technological advancements (e.g., larger turbines, better foundations, improved offshore chains), economies of scale, experience curve effects, and better resource assessment methodologies.
    *   **Technology & Practice:** Accelerating early-stage R&D, improving technology assessments, developing databases, exchanging best practices with developing countries, and removing development finance barriers.
    *   **Awareness:** Raising public awareness of wind energy benefits and the need for supporting infrastructure.
*   **Capacity Growth:** By **2020**, nearly all regions will have substantial wind power capacity (e.g., China >600GW), a feature of power systems globally by then.
*   **Geographical Shift:** **Non-OECD countries** are projected to account for an increasing share of global wind power generation (17% in 2030, 57% projected for 2050) and will host a significant portion of new investments by 2050.
*   **Offshore Focus:** Offshore wind faces higher costs than onshore (current ratio approx. 2:1) but is projected to grow significantly (aiming for 32% of total wind capacity by 2050, up from 19% in 2030). Addressing technical challenges and improving supply chains is a priority.
*   **Leading Regions:** China is identified as having the highest capacity growth and absolute megawatts added in the BLUE Map scenario. OECD Europe performs very strongly overall. Latin America, the US, OECD Pacific, and others contribute significantly to global wind power.
*   **Lago Coeina Generator Mix:** Wind power's share in the electricity mix grows globally (e.g., in China: target growth to 30% penetration likely). It becomes competitive where resources are strong and carbon costs are reflected.
*   **Avoided Emissions:** Cumulative CO2 avoidance by wind power by 2050 under the BLUE Map scenario is substantial (e.g., China, OECD Europe, Latin America are top contributors to abatement, alongside avoided emissions within the power sector compared to the reference scenario).