20121031-IEA-Technology_Roadmap_-_Hydropower_68页_3mb

Introduction and Context

The International Energy Agency (IEA) developed this Hydropower Technology Roadmap to explore sustainable growth pathways for hydropower as a key tool for mitigating climate change. Hydropower is the largest renewable electricity source globally, providing 16.3% of worldwide electricity (about 3,500 TWh in 2010). Future deployment must overcome barriers related to policy, environment, public acceptance, financial challenges, and further technology development. Long-term goals include doubling global capacity up to nearly 2,000 GW and generating over 7,000 TWh by 2050, facilitating the integration of variable renewables like wind and solar power.

Key trends:

• Hydropower deployment has driven mostly renewable electricity supply since 2005.
• Largest producers are China, Brazil, Canada, and the United States.
• Annual growth averaged 24.2 GW up to 2009, reaching nearly 1,067 GW in 2010 (including pumped storage).
• Hydropower provides climate-friendly electricity and essential flexibility for integrating variable renewables.

Key Findings

• Hydropower offers high reliability, proven technology, and very low operating costs.
• Technical potential estimated at ~15,000 TWh/y; current share of electricity generation is set to remain constant by 2050.
• Goal: Double global capacity by 2050, with deployment highly focused on emerging economies.
• By 2050, pumped storage will have multiplied its capacity by a factor of 3 to 5.
• Hydropower development must address regulatory, financial, and social acceptance barriers.

Key Actions in Next Ten Years

Recommendations for various stakeholders:

Governments

1. Prepare national hydropower inventories and development plans.
2. Value hydropower’s supplementary roles such as grid flexibility and multi-purpose benefits.
3. Strengthen electricity markets and ensure long-term revenue streams.
4. Treat hydropower as a strategic choice and include its financing in policy agendas.
5. Promote public and private acceptance, develop financial instruments to support hydropower projects, simplify permitting, and document sustainability efforts.

Industry

1. Assess opportunities for upgrading existing plants, adding units, and leveraging technological improvements.
2. Invest in monitoring and mitigating climate change effects on hydropower.
3. Enhance grid integration of variable renewables by considering sustainability in operations and deployment.

NGOs

1. Communicate the benefits of sustainably managed hydropower to stakeholders.
2. Monitor implementation of sustainability milestones and report on global progress.

Vision for Hydropower Deployment (Long-Term)

This roadmap sets a pathway for hydropower development till 2050 based on the IEA's Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) scenarios:

• Total capacity: 1,947 GW (nearly doubling to ~2,000 GW).
• Hydropower generation: 7,100 TWh (a ~100% increase from 2009).
• Pumped Storage Deployment: Expected to grow significantly (1,947 GW by 2050).
• Hydropower’s contribution to decarbonization: Avoids 1 billion tonnes of CO₂ emissions annually by 2050 compared to the 6DS scenario.

Deployment is driven by energy security, environmental sustainability, and socioeconomic development. Challenges remain high in Africa, Asia-Pacific countries, and Latin America.

Technical Potential and Deployment

Geographic Growth Potential

• Africa: Highest potential (35 GW capacity by 2050) due to undeveloped potential (~8% in 2009).
• Asia: Foreseen capacities of 852 GW by 2050 (China and India lead).
• Europe: 310 GW (25–30% of generation from renewables by 2050).
• North America: 215 GW (mainly Canada and USA).
• Latin America and the Caribbean: 240 GW (Brazil leads).

Role of Hydropower in Renewable Energy

• Provides ~25% renewable energy in ETP 2DS by 2050.
• Enables integration of variable renewables like wind and solar power due to its flexibility and storage capabilities.

Pumped Storage Hydropower (PSP)

• Potential: PSP contributed ~2% of global capacity in 2011, with targets of doubling or tripling by 2050.
• Impact: Facilitates balancing of variable renewables. New technologies include variable-speed pump-turbines and “offshore” pumped hydro systems.
• Economic: Current costs range from ~$500/kW to over $2,000/kW.

Sustainable Development (Environmental & Socio-Economic)

Environmental Aspects

• Impacts include changes in river ecosystems, reservoir GHG emissions (CH₄ and CO₂), and sedimentation.
• Mitigation efforts: Improved turbine technology (fish-friendly) and natural balance management.

Social Aspects

• Requires land acquisition, resettlement, community engagement, and fair benefit-sharing.
• Projects in developing regions may focus on off-grid/offshore platforms to minimize social disruption.

Economics and Financing

Key Challenges

• High upfront investment, long lead times, and market uncertainties (especially in deregulated economies).
• Requires innovative financial instruments from public and private sectors (PPP models).

Recommendations

• Ensure markets reward flexibility and storage.
• Introduce risk-mitigating financial instruments (e.g., long-term power purchase agreements).
• Reform electricity grids to support financing.

Technology Improvements

• Turbine Efficiency: Up to 95% efficiency via advanced designs and materials.
• Civil Works: Use of RCC dams to reduce construction time/cost.
• Upgrades: Retrofitting existing plants for higher efficiency and flexibility.

Policy Framework

Hydropower should be integrated into independent energy-water planning at the river-basin scale; sustainability criteria must be established to align with renewable integration goals.

Near-term Actions for Stakeholders

• National and local governments: Establish inventories, reform markets, strengthen public partnerships.
• Industry: Document sustainability protocols; manage climate impacts.
• NGOs: Inform the public keep track of global roadmaps.
• Multilateral agencies: Support capacity building in developing countries.

The roadmap provides a vision for coordinated global growth of hydropower by 2050, contributing significantly to climate goals and energy security.